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14 May 2026-5:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
48%
28%
24%
Valencia 48%
Draw 28%
Rayo Vallecano 24%
1.4 – 0.9
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-0
14% chance
Most Likely Score
39%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Valencia · at home
RAY · away
1.35
Goals scored per game
0.82
1.24
Goals conceded per game
1.59
0.86x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.72x
1.09x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.01x
Average: 1.57 home goals and 1.14 away goals per game in La Liga 2025-2026
Based on 34 + 34 La Liga 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-4-2
vs Atletico Madrid (H) 0-2 · 2 May 2026
Substitutes
29
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Getafe (A) 0-2 · 3 May 2026
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 7 meetings
71%
29%
Valencia wins 0
Draws 5
Rayo Vallecano wins 2
Goals 6 (0.86 per game)
Goals 8 (1.14 per game)
86%
6
of 7
Over 1.5 Goals
14%
1
of 7
Over 2.5 Goals
0%
0
of 7
Over 3.5 Goals
86%
6
of 7
Both Teams Scored
0%
0
of 7
Valencia Clean Sheets
14%
1
of 7
Rayo Vallecano Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 7 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Opponent
Valencia
VAL
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Points on these 5
14 of 27 · 1.56 per game
17 of 27 · 1.89 per game
Form & Points per Game
L
W
D
L
L
L
W
D
L
L
W
L
W
W
L
1.15
10-9-15
PPG Overall
1.53
7-5-5
PPG at Home
0.76
3-4-10
PPG Away
W
D
W
L
W
W
D
W
L
W
L
D
D
W
D
1.24
10-12-12
PPG Overall
1.59
6-9-2
PPG at Home
0.88
4-3-10
PPG Away
Venue form: Valencia at home +74% on points per game vs Rayo Vallecano away (1.53 vs 0.88)
Rest & Schedule
12
days rest
Valencia 0-2 Atletico Madrid
1 game in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
11
days rest
Getafe 0-2 Rayo Vallecano
1 game in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
34
17
17
Win %
29%
41%
18%
Goals per game
2.56
2.59
2.53
Scored
1.09
1.35
0.82
Conceded
1.47
1.24
1.71
Both teams scored
53%
59%
47%
Clean sheets
24%
24%
24%
Failed to score
26%
18%
35%
xG
1.29
1.45
1.12
xGA
1.21
0.95
1.48
Overall
Home
Away
Played
34
17
17
Win %
29%
35%
24%
Goals per game
2.24
2.06
2.41
Scored
1.03
1.24
0.82
Conceded
1.21
0.82
1.59
Both teams scored
41%
53%
29%
Clean sheets
32%
41%
24%
Failed to score
35%
18%
53%
xG
1.32
1.56
1.08
xGA
1.31
1.00
1.61
La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Valencia
VAL
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
97% 33/34
91% 31/34
94%
–
Over 1.5
79% 27/34
68% 23/34
74%
79%
Over 2.5
41% 14/34
38% 13/34
40%
51%
Over 3.5
21% 7/34
18% 6/34
19%
26%
Over 4.5
15% 5/34
6% 2/34
10%
–
Under 2.5
59% 20/34
62% 21/34
60%
49%
Both teams score
BTTS
53% 18/34
41% 14/34
47%
57%
BTTS & win
9% 3/34
6% 2/34
7%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
32% 11/34
18% 6/34
25%
–
Valencia
VAL
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
56% 19/34
71% 24/34
63%
–
Over 1.5
12% 4/34
24% 8/34
18%
–
Over 2.5
6% 2/34
6% 2/34
6%
–
BTTS
6% 2/34
12% 4/34
9%
–
% of each club's games · League = La Liga 2025-2026 (345 games, 2.70 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.35 at home
0.82 away
Valencia scored 23 in 17 home games
Rayo Vallecano scored 14 in 17 away games
Valencia
VAL
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Scored over 0.5
74% 25/34
65% 22/34
Scored over 1.5
26% 9/34
24% 8/34
Scored over 2.5
9% 3/34
15% 5/34
Failed to score
26% 9/34
35% 12/34
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.24 at home
1.59 away
Valencia conceded 21 in 17 home games
Rayo Vallecano conceded 27 in 17 away games
Valencia
VAL
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
Conceded over 0.5
76% 26/34
68% 23/34
Conceded over 1.5
44% 15/34
26% 9/34
Conceded over 2.5
12% 4/34
21% 7/34
Clean sheets
24% 8/34
32% 11/34
Streaks
1
Lost last game
5
Conceded in a row
2
Longest win run this season
3
Unbeaten last loss 4 games ago
3
Scored in a row
3
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Valencia
VAL
Rayo Vallecano
RAY
League
Corners
Corners won
5.13
5.82
–
Corners conceded
5.00
4.94
–
Match total
10.13
10.76
9.65
Over 8.5
70% 21/30
76% 26/34
–
Over 9.5
50% 15/30
62% 21/34
–
Over 10.5
50% 15/30
59% 20/34
–
Cards
Cards
1.88
2.97
–
Opponent cards
2.38
2.41
–
Match total
4.26
5.38
4.62
Over 3.5
68% 23/34
79% 27/34
–
Over 4.5
47% 16/34
62% 21/34
–
Shots
Shots
11.53
13.71
–
Opponent shots
11.94
11.97
–
Match total
23.47
25.68
24.67
Shots on target
On target
3.37
4.62
–
Opponent on target
4.40
4.03
–
Match total
7.77
8.65
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.26
13.06
–
Opponent fouls
11.85
11.32
–
Match total
24.12
24.38
–
Possession
All games
48%
54%
–
Home games
51%
55%
–
Away games
46%
52%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = La Liga 2025-2026 (345 games) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Valencia
Scored · 37
11%
8%
5%
22%
22%
32%
Conceded · 50
4%
14%
14%
22%
20%
26%
Rayo Vallecano
Scored · 35
6%
12%
31%
11%
17%
23%
Conceded · 41
12%
15%
15%
14%
17%
27%
45%
Scored first
42%
32%
Goals after 75'
23%
Scored first: Valencia 15 of 33, Rayo Vallecano 13 of 31 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
18%47%35%
Leading 6
Level 16
Trailing 12
1.00
points per game
At half-time
50%
3 of 6
Led at HT, won
25%
3 of 12
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 92nd 28
At half-time
26%38%35%
Leading 9
Level 13
Trailing 12
1.18
points per game
At half-time
67%
6 of 9
Led at HT, won
25%
3 of 12
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 172nd 18
9
Points won from losing positions in 22 · 18 games
6
16
Points dropped from winning positions in 16 · 14 games
9
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
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