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24 May 2026-4:00 pm
Stats Prediction
Result probability
60%
22%
18%
Villarreal 60%
Draw 22%
Atletico Madrid 18%
1.9 – 0.9
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-0
11% chance
Most Likely Score
53%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
VIL · at home
Atletico Madrid · away
2.41
Goals scored per game
1.18
0.88
Goals conceded per game
1.24
1.54x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.04x
0.78x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.79x
Average: 1.57 home goals and 1.14 away goals per game in La Liga 2025-2026
Based on 34 + 35 La Liga 2025-2026 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-4-2
vs Levante (H) 5-1 · 2 May 2026
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-4-2
vs Celta Vigo (H) 0-1 · 9 May 2026
Substitutes
37
Head to Head
Last 7 meetings
14%
71%
14%
Villarreal wins 1
Draws 5
Atletico Madrid wins 1
Goals 11 (1.57 per game)
Goals 11 (1.57 per game)
100%
7
of 7
Over 1.5 Goals
57%
4
of 7
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
4
of 7
Over 3.5 Goals
71%
5
of 7
Both Teams Scored
14%
1
of 7
Villarreal Clean Sheets
14%
1
of 7
Atletico Madrid Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 7 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Opponent
Villarreal
VIL
Atletico Madrid
ATL
Points on these 5
26 of 30 · 2.60 per game
20 of 30 · 2.00 per game
Form & Points per Game
W
W
D
W
L
W
W
D
W
L
W
D
W
L
W
2.00
21-5-8
PPG Overall
2.53
14-1-2
PPG at Home
1.47
7-4-6
PPG Away
L
W
W
L
L
L
W
W
L
L
L
L
W
W
W
1.80
19-6-10
PPG Overall
2.39
14-1-3
PPG at Home
1.18
5-5-7
PPG Away
Venue form: Villarreal at home +114% on points per game vs Atletico Madrid away (2.53 vs 1.18)
Rest & Schedule
22
days rest
Villarreal 5-1 Levante
0 games in 14 days · 2 in 30 days
15
days rest
Atletico Madrid 0-1 Celta Vigo
0 games in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
34
17
17
Win %
62%
82%
41%
Goals per game
3.03
3.29
2.76
Scored
1.88
2.41
1.35
Conceded
1.15
0.88
1.41
Both teams scored
62%
59%
65%
Clean sheets
24%
29%
18%
Failed to score
15%
12%
18%
xG
1.54
1.82
1.27
xGA
1.16
1.12
1.20
Overall
Home
Away
Played
35
18
17
Win %
54%
78%
29%
Goals per game
2.74
3.06
2.41
Scored
1.66
2.11
1.18
Conceded
1.09
0.94
1.24
Both teams scored
51%
50%
53%
Clean sheets
37%
39%
35%
Failed to score
14%
11%
18%
xG
1.53
2.01
1.01
xGA
1.15
0.85
1.47
La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Villarreal
VIL
Atletico Madrid
ATL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 34/34
97% 34/35
99%
–
Over 1.5
91% 31/34
74% 26/35
83%
79%
Over 2.5
59% 20/34
49% 17/35
54%
51%
Over 3.5
35% 12/34
26% 9/35
31%
26%
Over 4.5
15% 5/34
20% 7/35
17%
–
Under 2.5
41% 14/34
51% 18/35
46%
49%
Both teams score
BTTS
62% 21/34
51% 18/35
57%
57%
BTTS & win
38% 13/34
20% 7/35
29%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
53% 18/34
37% 13/35
45%
–
Villarreal
VIL
Atletico Madrid
ATL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
79% 27/34
69% 24/35
74%
–
Over 1.5
35% 12/34
43% 15/35
39%
–
Over 2.5
15% 5/34
9% 3/35
12%
–
BTTS
12% 4/34
31% 11/35
22%
–
% of each club's games · League = La Liga 2025-2026 (345 games, 2.70 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
2.41 at home
1.18 away
Villarreal scored 41 in 17 home games
Atletico Madrid scored 20 in 17 away games
Villarreal
VIL
Atletico Madrid
ATL
Scored over 0.5
85% 29/34
86% 30/35
Scored over 1.5
62% 21/34
46% 16/35
Scored over 2.5
24% 8/34
26% 9/35
Failed to score
15% 5/34
14% 5/35
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.88 at home
1.24 away
Villarreal conceded 15 in 17 home games
Atletico Madrid conceded 21 in 17 away games
Villarreal
VIL
Atletico Madrid
ATL
Conceded over 0.5
76% 26/34
63% 22/35
Conceded over 1.5
29% 10/34
34% 12/35
Conceded over 2.5
6% 2/34
11% 4/35
Clean sheets
24% 8/34
37% 13/35
Streaks
4
Unbeaten last loss 5 games ago
10
Conceded in a row
4
Scored in a row
4
Both teams scored in a row
6
Longest win run this season
1
Lost last game
6
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Villarreal
VIL
Atletico Madrid
ATL
League
Corners
Corners won
4.10
6.26
–
Corners conceded
5.07
4.12
–
Match total
9.17
10.38
9.65
Over 8.5
53% 16/30
74% 25/34
–
Over 9.5
47% 14/30
56% 19/34
–
Over 10.5
33% 10/30
50% 17/34
–
Cards
Cards
2.32
2.23
–
Opponent cards
2.21
2.00
–
Match total
4.53
4.23
4.62
Over 3.5
65% 22/34
63% 22/35
–
Over 4.5
47% 16/34
40% 14/35
–
Shots
Shots
12.15
13.23
–
Opponent shots
12.29
10.69
–
Match total
24.44
23.91
24.67
Shots on target
On target
4.74
5.09
–
Opponent on target
3.87
3.58
–
Match total
8.61
8.67
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.00
11.06
–
Opponent fouls
12.24
9.77
–
Match total
24.24
20.83
–
Possession
All games
44%
54%
–
Home games
47%
55%
–
Away games
40%
53%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = La Liga 2025-2026 (345 games) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Villarreal
Scored · 64
12%
16%
22%
19%
16%
15%
Conceded · 39
8%
10%
15%
21%
18%
28%
Atletico Madrid
Scored · 58
21%
10%
14%
14%
17%
24%
Conceded · 38
13%
16%
18%
8%
21%
24%
68%
Scored first
79%
16%
Goals after 75'
24%
Scored first: Villarreal 23 of 34, Atletico Madrid 27 of 34 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
53%24%24%
Leading 18
Level 8
Trailing 8
1.82
points per game
At half-time
89%
16 of 18
Led at HT, won
38%
3 of 8
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 322nd 32
At half-time
29%60%11%
Leading 10
Level 21
Trailing 4
1.46
points per game
At half-time
70%
7 of 10
Led at HT, won
25%
1 of 4
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 262nd 32
8
Points won from losing positions in 12 · 14 games
12
8
Points dropped from winning positions in 25 · 29 games
25
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · La Liga 2025-2026 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
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