Stats Prediction
Result probability
80%
16%
Marseille 80%
Draw 16%
Nantes 4%
2.1 – 0.3
goals per side
Expected Goals
2-0
20% chance
Most Likely Score
44%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
23%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
MAR · at home
NAN · away
1.70
Goals scored per game
0.67
0.50
Goals conceded per game
1.78
1.19x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.62x
0.47x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.24x
Average: 1.43 home goals and 1.07 away goals per game in Ligue 1 2023-2024
Based on 20 + 20 Ligue 1 2023-2024 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Lyon (A) 1-0 · 4 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-4-1-1
vs Lens (H) 0-1 · 3 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 3 meetings
67%
33%
Marseille wins 2
Draws 1
Nantes wins 0
Goals 5 (1.67 per game)
Goals 2 (0.67 per game)
100%
3
of 3
Over 1.5 Goals
33%
1
of 3
Over 2.5 Goals
0%
0
of 3
Over 3.5 Goals
67%
2
of 3
Both Teams Scored
33%
1
of 3
Marseille Clean Sheets
0%
0
of 3
Nantes Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 3 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
L
D
D
D
W
L
D
D
D
W
W
W
W
D
L
1.45
7-8-5
PPG Overall
2.20
6-4-0
PPG at Home
0.70
1-4-5
PPG Away
L
D
L
L
L
L
D
L
L
L
L
W
D
L
L
0.95
5-4-11
PPG Overall
1.09
3-3-5
PPG at Home
0.78
2-1-6
PPG Away
Venue form: Marseille at home +182% on points per game vs Nantes away (2.20 vs 0.78)
Rest & Schedule
35
days rest
Lyon 1-0 Marseille
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
36
days rest
Nantes 0-1 Lens
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
20
10
10
Win %
35%
60%
10%
Goals per game
2.50
2.20
2.80
Scored
1.40
1.70
1.10
Conceded
1.10
0.50
1.70
Both teams scored
50%
40%
60%
Clean sheets
30%
60%
0%
Failed to score
30%
20%
40%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
20
11
9
Win %
25%
27%
22%
Goals per game
2.55
2.64
2.44
Scored
1.00
1.27
0.67
Conceded
1.55
1.36
1.78
Both teams scored
45%
45%
44%
Clean sheets
25%
27%
22%
Failed to score
40%
36%
44%
Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Marseille
MAR
Nantes
NAN
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
90% 18/20
90% 18/20
90%
–
Over 1.5
75% 15/20
65% 13/20
70%
72%
Over 2.5
45% 9/20
45% 9/20
45%
48%
Over 3.5
25% 5/20
25% 5/20
25%
26%
Over 4.5
10% 2/20
10% 2/20
10%
–
Under 2.5
55% 11/20
55% 11/20
55%
52%
Both teams score
BTTS
50% 10/20
45% 9/20
48%
49%
BTTS & win
15% 3/20
10% 2/20
13%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
30% 6/20
40% 8/20
35%
–
Marseille
MAR
Nantes
NAN
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
80% 16/20
55% 11/20
68%
–
Over 1.5
50% 10/20
25% 5/20
38%
–
Over 2.5
15% 3/20
10% 2/20
13%
–
BTTS
30% 6/20
25% 5/20
28%
–
% of each club's games · League = Ligue 1 2023-2024 (180 games, 2.51 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.70 at home
0.67 away
Marseille scored 17 in 10 home games
Nantes scored 6 in 9 away games
Marseille
MAR
Nantes
NAN
Scored over 0.5
70% 14/20
60% 12/20
Scored over 1.5
50% 10/20
20% 4/20
Scored over 2.5
15% 3/20
10% 2/20
Failed to score
30% 6/20
40% 8/20
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.50 at home
1.78 away
Marseille conceded 5 in 10 home games
Nantes conceded 16 in 9 away games
Marseille
MAR
Nantes
NAN
Conceded over 0.5
70% 14/20
75% 15/20
Conceded over 1.5
25% 5/20
50% 10/20
Conceded over 2.5
10% 2/20
25% 5/20
Clean sheets
30% 6/20
25% 5/20
Streaks
Match Totals
Marseille
MAR
Nantes
NAN
League
Corners
Corners won
5.85
5.05
–
Corners conceded
4.50
5.05
–
Match total
10.35
10.10
9.45
Over 8.5
65% 13/20
60% 12/20
–
Over 9.5
55% 11/20
50% 10/20
–
Over 10.5
40% 8/20
45% 9/20
–
Cards
Cards
1.80
2.00
–
Opponent cards
2.70
1.85
–
Match total
4.50
3.85
3.98
Over 3.5
55% 11/20
60% 12/20
–
Over 4.5
45% 9/20
15% 3/20
–
Shots
Shots
13.75
12.15
–
Opponent shots
11.20
13.25
–
Match total
24.95
25.40
25.14
Shots on target
On target
4.67
4.39
–
Opponent on target
4.22
5.67
–
Match total
8.89
10.06
–
Fouls
Fouls
11.05
12.60
–
Opponent fouls
13.65
11.40
–
Match total
24.70
24.00
–
Possession
All games
53%
48%
–
Home games
52%
46%
–
Away games
54%
49%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Ligue 1 2023-2024 (180 games) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Marseille
Scored · 28
29%
28%
14%
11%
11%
7%
Conceded · 22
27%
5%
23%
18%
9%
18%
Nantes
Scored · 20
20%
5%
20%
40%
5%
10%
Conceded · 31
13%
13%
3%
20%
19%
32%
56%
Scored first
33%
7%
Goals after 75'
10%
Scored first: Marseille 10 of 18, Nantes 6 of 18 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
40%40%20%
Leading 8
Level 8
Trailing 4
1.60
points per game
At half-time
75%
6 of 8
Led at HT, won
50%
2 of 4
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 202nd 8
At half-time
20%60%20%
Leading 4
Level 12
Trailing 4
1.20
points per game
At half-time
50%
2 of 4
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 4
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 92nd 11
7
Points won from losing positions in 10 · 13 games
4
9
Points dropped from winning positions in 11 · 7 games
5
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Standings
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
···
6
9
5
6
24
19
5
32
7
9
3
8
27
27
0
30
8
7
8
5
28
22
6
29
9
7
7
6
30
25
5
28
10
6
7
7
21
26
-5
25
···
13
4
8
8
19
27
-8
20
14
5
4
11
20
33
-13
19
15
5
4
11
20
31
-11
19
16
3
7
10
26
42
-16
16
17
4
4
12
17
31
-14
16
···
- Champions League (Group Stage) - Champions League (3rd Qualif. round) - Europa League (Group Stage) - Europa Conference League (Qualification) - Relegation play-offs - Relegation - Serie B
Latest Games
