Stats Prediction
Result probability
56%
31%
13%
Marseille 56%
Draw 31%
Lens 13%
1.2 – 0.4
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-0
24% chance
Most Likely Score
22%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
24%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
MAR · at home
LEN · away
1.70
Goals scored per game
0.91
0.50
Goals conceded per game
1.00
1.19x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.85x
0.47x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.70x
Average: 1.43 home goals and 1.07 away goals per game in Ligue 1 2023-2024
Based on 20 + 20 Ligue 1 2023-2024 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Lyon (A) 1-0 · 4 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Last game lineup
3-4-1-2
vs Nantes (A) 0-1 · 3 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 3 meetings
100%
Marseille wins 0
Draws 0
Lens wins 3
Goals 1 (0.33 per game)
Goals 4 (1.33 per game)
33%
1
of 3
Over 1.5 Goals
33%
1
of 3
Over 2.5 Goals
0%
0
of 3
Over 3.5 Goals
33%
1
of 3
Both Teams Scored
0%
0
of 3
Marseille Clean Sheets
67%
2
of 3
Lens Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 3 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
L
D
D
D
W
L
D
D
D
W
W
W
W
D
L
1.45
7-8-5
PPG Overall
2.20
6-4-0
PPG at Home
0.70
1-4-5
PPG Away
W
W
L
L
W
W
W
L
L
W
D
W
W
W
D
1.60
9-5-6
PPG Overall
1.89
5-2-2
PPG at Home
1.36
4-3-4
PPG Away
Venue form: Marseille at home +62% on points per game vs Lens away (2.20 vs 1.36)
Rest & Schedule
84
days rest
Lyon 1-0 Marseille
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
85
days rest
Nantes 0-1 Lens
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
20
10
10
Win %
35%
60%
10%
Goals per game
2.50
2.20
2.80
Scored
1.40
1.70
1.10
Conceded
1.10
0.50
1.70
Both teams scored
50%
40%
60%
Clean sheets
30%
60%
0%
Failed to score
30%
20%
40%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
20
9
11
Win %
45%
56%
36%
Goals per game
2.15
2.44
1.91
Scored
1.20
1.56
0.91
Conceded
0.95
0.89
1.00
Both teams scored
30%
44%
18%
Clean sheets
50%
33%
64%
Failed to score
35%
22%
45%
Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Marseille
MAR
Lens
LEN
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
90% 18/20
85% 17/20
88%
–
Over 1.5
75% 15/20
65% 13/20
70%
72%
Over 2.5
45% 9/20
35% 7/20
40%
48%
Over 3.5
25% 5/20
20% 4/20
23%
26%
Over 4.5
10% 2/20
10% 2/20
10%
–
Under 2.5
55% 11/20
65% 13/20
60%
52%
Both teams score
BTTS
50% 10/20
30% 6/20
40%
49%
BTTS & win
15% 3/20
10% 2/20
13%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
30% 6/20
20% 4/20
25%
–
Marseille
MAR
Lens
LEN
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
80% 16/20
70% 14/20
75%
–
Over 1.5
50% 10/20
20% 4/20
35%
–
Over 2.5
15% 3/20
5% 1/20
10%
–
BTTS
30% 6/20
15% 3/20
23%
–
% of each club's games · League = Ligue 1 2023-2024 (180 games, 2.51 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.70 at home
0.91 away
Marseille scored 17 in 10 home games
Lens scored 10 in 11 away games
Marseille
MAR
Lens
LEN
Scored over 0.5
70% 14/20
65% 13/20
Scored over 1.5
50% 10/20
35% 7/20
Scored over 2.5
15% 3/20
15% 3/20
Failed to score
30% 6/20
35% 7/20
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.50 at home
1.00 away
Marseille conceded 5 in 10 home games
Lens conceded 11 in 11 away games
Marseille
MAR
Lens
LEN
Conceded over 0.5
70% 14/20
50% 10/20
Conceded over 1.5
25% 5/20
30% 6/20
Conceded over 2.5
10% 2/20
15% 3/20
Clean sheets
30% 6/20
50% 10/20
Streaks
Match Totals
Marseille
MAR
Lens
LEN
League
Corners
Corners won
5.85
5.00
–
Corners conceded
4.50
4.21
–
Match total
10.35
9.21
9.45
Over 8.5
65% 13/20
58% 11/19
–
Over 9.5
55% 11/20
47% 9/19
–
Over 10.5
40% 8/20
37% 7/19
–
Cards
Cards
1.80
2.40
–
Opponent cards
2.70
1.95
–
Match total
4.50
4.35
3.98
Over 3.5
55% 11/20
65% 13/20
–
Over 4.5
45% 9/20
50% 10/20
–
Shots
Shots
13.75
13.90
–
Opponent shots
11.20
11.25
–
Match total
24.95
25.15
25.14
Shots on target
On target
4.67
5.00
–
Opponent on target
4.22
4.05
–
Match total
8.89
9.05
–
Fouls
Fouls
11.05
13.25
–
Opponent fouls
13.65
13.70
–
Match total
24.70
26.95
–
Possession
All games
53%
52%
–
Home games
52%
51%
–
Away games
54%
53%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Ligue 1 2023-2024 (180 games) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Marseille
Scored · 28
29%
28%
14%
11%
11%
7%
Conceded · 22
27%
5%
23%
18%
9%
18%
Lens
Scored · 24
12%
17%
12%
21%
17%
21%
Conceded · 19
5%
11%
32%
21%
5%
26%
56%
Scored first
53%
7%
Goals after 75'
21%
Scored first: Marseille 10 of 18, Lens 9 of 17 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
40%40%20%
Leading 8
Level 8
Trailing 4
1.60
points per game
At half-time
75%
6 of 8
Led at HT, won
50%
2 of 4
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 202nd 8
At half-time
35%40%25%
Leading 7
Level 8
Trailing 5
1.45
points per game
At half-time
71%
5 of 7
Led at HT, won
20%
1 of 5
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 102nd 14
7
Points won from losing positions in 10 · 9 games
7
9
Points dropped from winning positions in 11 · 11 games
5
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Standings
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
···
4
9
8
3
28
14
14
35
5
10
5
5
37
28
9
35
6
9
5
6
24
19
5
32
7
9
3
8
27
27
0
30
8
7
8
5
28
22
6
29
9
7
7
6
30
25
5
28
10
6
7
7
21
26
-5
25
···
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