Stats Prediction
Result probability
18%
32%
50%
Metz 18%
Draw 32%
Lille 50%
0.6 – 1.1
goals per side
Expected Goals
0-1
21% chance
Most Likely Score
24%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
29%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
MET · at home
LIL · away
0.80
Goals scored per game
1.00
1.20
Goals conceded per game
1.00
0.56x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.93x
1.12x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.70x
Average: 1.43 home goals and 1.07 away goals per game in Ligue 1 2023-2024
Based on 20 + 20 Ligue 1 2023-2024 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-1-4-1
vs Lorient (H) 1-2 · 4 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Clermont Foot (H) 4-0 · 4 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Head to Head
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
W
W
D
0.80
4-4-12
PPG Overall
0.60
1-3-6
PPG at Home
1.00
3-1-6
PPG Away
W
D
W
L
D
W
D
W
L
D
D
W
W
D
D
1.75
9-8-3
PPG Overall
2.30
7-2-1
PPG at Home
1.20
2-6-2
PPG Away
Venue form: Lille away +100% on points per game vs Metz at home (1.20 vs 0.60)
Rest & Schedule
84
days rest
Metz 1-2 Lorient
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
84
days rest
Lille 4-0 Clermont Foot
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
20
10
10
Win %
20%
10%
30%
Goals per game
2.40
2.00
2.80
Scored
0.85
0.80
0.90
Conceded
1.55
1.20
1.90
Both teams scored
45%
40%
50%
Clean sheets
15%
10%
20%
Failed to score
45%
60%
30%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
20
10
10
Win %
45%
70%
20%
Goals per game
2.10
2.20
2.00
Scored
1.40
1.80
1.00
Conceded
0.70
0.40
1.00
Both teams scored
40%
30%
50%
Clean sheets
60%
70%
50%
Failed to score
15%
0%
30%
Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Metz
MET
Lille
LIL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
95% 19/20
85% 17/20
90%
–
Over 1.5
55% 11/20
75% 15/20
65%
72%
Over 2.5
45% 9/20
30% 6/20
38%
48%
Over 3.5
30% 6/20
15% 3/20
23%
26%
Over 4.5
10% 2/20
5% 1/20
8%
–
Under 2.5
55% 11/20
70% 14/20
63%
52%
Both teams score
BTTS
45% 9/20
40% 8/20
43%
49%
BTTS & win
10% 2/20
0% 0/20
5%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
40% 8/20
20% 4/20
30%
–
Metz
MET
Lille
LIL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
65% 13/20
75% 15/20
70%
–
Over 1.5
40% 8/20
35% 7/20
38%
–
Over 2.5
10% 2/20
5% 1/20
8%
–
BTTS
30% 6/20
5% 1/20
18%
–
% of each club's games · League = Ligue 1 2023-2024 (180 games, 2.51 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
0.80 at home
1.00 away
Metz scored 8 in 10 home games
Lille scored 10 in 10 away games
Metz
MET
Lille
LIL
Scored over 0.5
55% 11/20
85% 17/20
Scored over 1.5
20% 4/20
40% 8/20
Scored over 2.5
10% 2/20
10% 2/20
Failed to score
45% 9/20
15% 3/20
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.20 at home
1.00 away
Metz conceded 12 in 10 home games
Lille conceded 10 in 10 away games
Metz
MET
Lille
LIL
Conceded over 0.5
85% 17/20
40% 8/20
Conceded over 1.5
45% 9/20
20% 4/20
Conceded over 2.5
15% 3/20
5% 1/20
Clean sheets
15% 3/20
60% 12/20
Streaks
Match Totals
Metz
MET
Lille
LIL
League
Corners
Corners won
3.95
5.70
–
Corners conceded
5.05
4.15
–
Match total
9.00
9.85
9.45
Over 8.5
55% 11/20
55% 11/20
–
Over 9.5
50% 10/20
55% 11/20
–
Over 10.5
35% 7/20
40% 8/20
–
Cards
Cards
1.60
1.90
–
Opponent cards
1.30
1.95
–
Match total
2.90
3.85
3.98
Over 3.5
40% 8/20
55% 11/20
–
Over 4.5
15% 3/20
45% 9/20
–
Shots
Shots
9.30
13.70
–
Opponent shots
14.35
8.75
–
Match total
23.65
22.45
25.14
Shots on target
On target
3.25
5.24
–
Opponent on target
5.45
3.71
–
Match total
8.70
8.94
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.25
10.70
–
Opponent fouls
11.75
15.40
–
Match total
24.00
26.10
–
Possession
All games
35%
58%
–
Home games
40%
57%
–
Away games
30%
58%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Ligue 1 2023-2024 (180 games) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Metz
Scored · 17
23%
18%
6%
0%
35%
18%
Conceded · 31
19%
13%
16%
19%
7%
26%
Lille
Scored · 28
11%
14%
39%
7%
7%
22%
Conceded · 14
22%
14%
7%
0%
43%
14%
37%
Scored first
76%
18%
Goals after 75'
21%
Scored first: Metz 7 of 19, Lille 13 of 17 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
10%55%35%
Leading 2
Level 11
Trailing 7
0.85
points per game
At half-time
100%
2 of 2
Led at HT, won
29%
2 of 7
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 82nd 9
At half-time
55%30%15%
Leading 11
Level 6
Trailing 3
1.95
points per game
At half-time
73%
8 of 11
Led at HT, won
33%
1 of 3
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 182nd 10
5
Points won from losing positions in 15 · 5 games
2
9
Points dropped from winning positions in 8 · 13 games
9
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Standings
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
···
2
11
6
3
20
11
9
39
3
10
6
4
29
17
12
36
4
9
8
3
28
14
14
35
5
10
5
5
37
28
9
35
6
9
5
6
24
19
5
32
···
15
5
4
11
20
31
-11
19
16
3
7
10
26
42
-16
16
17
4
4
12
17
31
-14
16
18
3
6
11
14
32
-18
15
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