Stats Prediction
Result probability
79%
13%
8%
Paris Saint Germain 79%
Draw 13%
Toulouse 8%
2.7 – 0.8
goals per side
Expected Goals
2-0
11% chance
Most Likely Score
68%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Paris Saint Germain · at home
TOU · away
2.70
Goals scored per game
0.82
1.00
Goals conceded per game
1.45
1.88x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.76x
0.93x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.01x
Average: 1.43 home goals and 1.07 away goals per game in Ligue 1 2023-2024
Based on 20 + 20 Ligue 1 2023-2024 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Strasbourg (A) 1-2 · 2 Feb 2024
Substitutes
42
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Reims (A) 2-3 · 4 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 3 meetings
67%
33%
Paris Saint Germain wins 2
Draws 1
Toulouse wins 0
Goals 6 (2.00 per game)
Goals 2 (0.67 per game)
100%
3
of 3
Over 1.5 Goals
67%
2
of 3
Over 2.5 Goals
0%
0
of 3
Over 3.5 Goals
67%
2
of 3
Both Teams Scored
33%
1
of 3
Paris Saint Germain Clean Sheets
0%
0
of 3
Toulouse Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 3 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
W
D
W
W
D
W
D
W
W
D
W
W
W
W
W
2.35
14-5-1
PPG Overall
2.30
7-2-1
PPG at Home
2.40
7-3-0
PPG Away
W
L
W
L
D
W
L
W
L
D
L
D
L
D
L
1.00
4-8-8
PPG Overall
0.89
1-5-3
PPG at Home
1.09
3-3-5
PPG Away
Venue form: Paris Saint Germain at home +111% on points per game vs Toulouse away (2.30 vs 1.09)
Rest & Schedule
99
days rest
Strasbourg 1-2 Paris Saint Germain
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
97
days rest
Reims 2-3 Toulouse
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
20
10
10
Win %
70%
70%
70%
Goals per game
3.25
3.70
2.80
Scored
2.40
2.70
2.10
Conceded
0.85
1.00
0.70
Both teams scored
60%
60%
60%
Clean sheets
40%
40%
40%
Failed to score
10%
10%
10%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
20
9
11
Win %
20%
11%
27%
Goals per game
2.30
2.33
2.27
Scored
0.95
1.11
0.82
Conceded
1.35
1.22
1.45
Both teams scored
55%
67%
45%
Clean sheets
20%
22%
18%
Failed to score
35%
22%
45%
Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Toulouse
TOU
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
90% 18/20
90% 18/20
90%
–
Over 1.5
90% 18/20
80% 16/20
85%
72%
Over 2.5
70% 14/20
45% 9/20
58%
48%
Over 3.5
45% 9/20
10% 2/20
28%
26%
Over 4.5
20% 4/20
5% 1/20
13%
–
Under 2.5
30% 6/20
55% 11/20
43%
52%
Both teams score
BTTS
60% 12/20
55% 11/20
58%
49%
BTTS & win
40% 8/20
10% 2/20
25%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
50% 10/20
30% 6/20
40%
–
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Toulouse
TOU
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
75% 15/20
60% 12/20
68%
–
Over 1.5
40% 8/20
30% 6/20
35%
–
Over 2.5
15% 3/20
15% 3/20
15%
–
BTTS
15% 3/20
15% 3/20
15%
–
% of each club's games · League = Ligue 1 2023-2024 (180 games, 2.51 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
2.70 at home
0.82 away
Paris Saint Germain scored 27 in 10 home games
Toulouse scored 9 in 11 away games
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Toulouse
TOU
Scored over 0.5
90% 18/20
65% 13/20
Scored over 1.5
80% 16/20
20% 4/20
Scored over 2.5
50% 10/20
10% 2/20
Failed to score
10% 2/20
35% 7/20
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.00 at home
1.45 away
Paris Saint Germain conceded 10 in 10 home games
Toulouse conceded 16 in 11 away games
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Toulouse
TOU
Conceded over 0.5
60% 12/20
80% 16/20
Conceded over 1.5
20% 4/20
45% 9/20
Conceded over 2.5
5% 1/20
10% 2/20
Clean sheets
40% 8/20
20% 4/20
Streaks
15
Unbeaten last loss 16 games ago
13
Scored in a row
2
Conceded in a row
2
Both teams scored in a row
8
Longest win run this season
1
Won last game
2
Conceded in a row
Match Totals
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Toulouse
TOU
League
Corners
Corners won
5.21
3.84
–
Corners conceded
5.16
5.63
–
Match total
10.37
9.47
9.45
Over 8.5
68% 13/19
53% 10/19
–
Over 9.5
68% 13/19
47% 9/19
–
Over 10.5
53% 10/19
32% 6/19
–
Cards
Cards
1.40
2.55
–
Opponent cards
1.85
2.15
–
Match total
3.25
4.70
3.98
Over 3.5
45% 9/20
80% 16/20
–
Over 4.5
25% 5/20
50% 10/20
–
Shots
Shots
14.90
11.40
–
Opponent shots
12.65
14.35
–
Match total
27.55
25.75
25.14
Shots on target
On target
6.28
4.15
–
Opponent on target
4.67
4.45
–
Match total
10.94
8.60
–
Fouls
Fouls
10.20
14.95
–
Opponent fouls
11.80
13.25
–
Match total
22.00
28.20
–
Possession
All games
65%
49%
–
Home games
69%
49%
–
Away games
62%
49%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Ligue 1 2023-2024 (180 games) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Paris Saint Germain
Scored · 48
10%
15%
25%
17%
10%
23%
Conceded · 17
0%
12%
6%
29%
29%
24%
Toulouse
Scored · 19
26%
5%
26%
11%
16%
16%
Conceded · 27
7%
15%
15%
19%
11%
33%
94%
Scored first
50%
23%
Goals after 75'
16%
Scored first: Paris Saint Germain 17 of 18, Toulouse 9 of 18 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
70%30%
Leading 14
Level 6
Trailing 0
2.40
points per game
At half-time
93%
13 of 14
Led at HT, won
–
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 242nd 24
At half-time
25%45%30%
Leading 5
Level 9
Trailing 6
1.20
points per game
At half-time
60%
3 of 5
Led at HT, won
33%
2 of 6
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 112nd 8
0
Points won from losing positions in 1 · 12 games
6
6
Points dropped from winning positions in 17 · 10 games
15
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Standings
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
1
14
5
1
48
17
31
47
2
11
6
3
20
11
9
39
3
10
6
4
29
17
12
36
···
11
5
9
6
23
24
-1
24
12
4
8
8
20
25
-5
20
13
4
8
8
19
27
-8
20
14
5
4
11
20
33
-13
19
15
5
4
11
20
31
-11
19
···
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