Stats Prediction
Result probability
84%
12%
Marseille 84%
Draw 12%
Lorient 4%
2.6 – 0.4
goals per side
Expected Goals
2-0
16% chance
Most Likely Score
58%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
32%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
MAR · at home
LOR · away
1.70
Goals scored per game
0.90
0.50
Goals conceded per game
2.20
1.19x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.84x
0.47x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.53x
Average: 1.43 home goals and 1.07 away goals per game in Ligue 1 2023-2024
Based on 20 + 20 Ligue 1 2023-2024 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Lyon (A) 1-0 · 4 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs Metz (A) 1-2 · 4 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 3 meetings
67%
33%
Marseille wins 2
Draws 1
Lorient wins 0
Goals 7 (2.33 per game)
Goals 3 (1.00 per game)
67%
2
of 3
Over 1.5 Goals
67%
2
of 3
Over 2.5 Goals
67%
2
of 3
Over 3.5 Goals
67%
2
of 3
Both Teams Scored
33%
1
of 3
Marseille Clean Sheets
33%
1
of 3
Lorient Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 3 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
L
D
D
D
W
L
D
D
D
W
W
W
W
D
L
1.45
7-8-5
PPG Overall
2.20
6-4-0
PPG at Home
0.70
1-4-5
PPG Away
W
D
L
L
L
W
D
L
L
L
L
D
L
L
D
0.80
3-7-10
PPG Overall
1.00
2-4-4
PPG at Home
0.60
1-3-6
PPG Away
Venue form: Marseille at home +267% on points per game vs Lorient away (2.20 vs 0.60)
Rest & Schedule
97
days rest
Lyon 1-0 Marseille
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
97
days rest
Metz 1-2 Lorient
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
20
10
10
Win %
35%
60%
10%
Goals per game
2.50
2.20
2.80
Scored
1.40
1.70
1.10
Conceded
1.10
0.50
1.70
Both teams scored
50%
40%
60%
Clean sheets
30%
60%
0%
Failed to score
30%
20%
40%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
20
10
10
Win %
15%
20%
10%
Goals per game
3.40
3.70
3.10
Scored
1.30
1.70
0.90
Conceded
2.10
2.00
2.20
Both teams scored
60%
80%
40%
Clean sheets
10%
10%
10%
Failed to score
40%
20%
60%
Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Marseille
MAR
Lorient
LOR
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
90% 18/20
90% 18/20
90%
–
Over 1.5
75% 15/20
80% 16/20
78%
72%
Over 2.5
45% 9/20
70% 14/20
58%
48%
Over 3.5
25% 5/20
40% 8/20
33%
26%
Over 4.5
10% 2/20
30% 6/20
20%
–
Under 2.5
55% 11/20
30% 6/20
43%
52%
Both teams score
BTTS
50% 10/20
60% 12/20
55%
49%
BTTS & win
15% 3/20
15% 3/20
15%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
30% 6/20
50% 10/20
40%
–
Marseille
MAR
Lorient
LOR
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
80% 16/20
65% 13/20
73%
–
Over 1.5
50% 10/20
50% 10/20
50%
–
Over 2.5
15% 3/20
25% 5/20
20%
–
BTTS
30% 6/20
40% 8/20
35%
–
% of each club's games · League = Ligue 1 2023-2024 (180 games, 2.51 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.70 at home
0.90 away
Marseille scored 17 in 10 home games
Lorient scored 9 in 10 away games
Marseille
MAR
Lorient
LOR
Scored over 0.5
70% 14/20
60% 12/20
Scored over 1.5
50% 10/20
45% 9/20
Scored over 2.5
15% 3/20
20% 4/20
Failed to score
30% 6/20
40% 8/20
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.50 at home
2.20 away
Marseille conceded 5 in 10 home games
Lorient conceded 22 in 10 away games
Marseille
MAR
Lorient
LOR
Conceded over 0.5
70% 14/20
90% 18/20
Conceded over 1.5
25% 5/20
55% 11/20
Conceded over 2.5
10% 2/20
45% 9/20
Clean sheets
30% 6/20
10% 2/20
Streaks
Match Totals
Marseille
MAR
Lorient
LOR
League
Corners
Corners won
5.85
3.89
–
Corners conceded
4.50
5.61
–
Match total
10.35
9.50
9.45
Over 8.5
65% 13/20
50% 9/18
–
Over 9.5
55% 11/20
39% 7/18
–
Over 10.5
40% 8/20
33% 6/18
–
Cards
Cards
1.80
2.05
–
Opponent cards
2.70
1.80
–
Match total
4.50
3.85
3.98
Over 3.5
55% 11/20
55% 11/20
–
Over 4.5
45% 9/20
40% 8/20
–
Shots
Shots
13.75
8.95
–
Opponent shots
11.20
15.80
–
Match total
24.95
24.75
25.14
Shots on target
On target
4.67
3.94
–
Opponent on target
4.22
6.50
–
Match total
8.89
10.44
–
Fouls
Fouls
11.05
12.35
–
Opponent fouls
13.65
13.10
–
Match total
24.70
25.45
–
Possession
All games
53%
46%
–
Home games
52%
46%
–
Away games
54%
46%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Ligue 1 2023-2024 (180 games) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Marseille
Scored · 28
29%
28%
14%
11%
11%
7%
Conceded · 22
27%
5%
23%
18%
9%
18%
Lorient
Scored · 26
23%
12%
12%
19%
11%
23%
Conceded · 42
12%
21%
14%
12%
17%
24%
56%
Scored first
33%
7%
Goals after 75'
23%
Scored first: Marseille 10 of 18, Lorient 6 of 18 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
40%40%20%
Leading 8
Level 8
Trailing 4
1.60
points per game
At half-time
75%
6 of 8
Led at HT, won
50%
2 of 4
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 202nd 8
At half-time
15%55%30%
Leading 3
Level 11
Trailing 6
1.00
points per game
At half-time
67%
2 of 3
Led at HT, won
17%
1 of 6
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 122nd 14
7
Points won from losing positions in 10 · 15 games
5
9
Points dropped from winning positions in 11 · 8 games
12
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Standings
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
···
6
9
5
6
24
19
5
32
7
9
3
8
27
27
0
30
8
7
8
5
28
22
6
29
9
7
7
6
30
25
5
28
10
6
7
7
21
26
-5
25
···
14
5
4
11
20
33
-13
19
15
5
4
11
20
31
-11
19
16
3
7
10
26
42
-16
16
17
4
4
12
17
31
-14
16
18
3
6
11
14
32
-18
15
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