Stats Prediction
Result probability
46%
29%
25%
AC Milan 46%
Draw 29%
Napoli 25%
1.2 – 0.8
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-0
15% chance
Most Likely Score
35%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
41%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
AC Milan · at home
Napoli · away
1.82
Goals scored per game
1.45
0.64
Goals conceded per game
1.00
1.25x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.33x
0.58x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.68x
Average: 1.46 home goals and 1.09 away goals per game in Serie A 2023-2024
Based on 23 + 22 Serie A 2023-2024 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Frosinone (A) 2-3 · 3 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Verona (H) 2-1 · 4 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings
30%
40%
30%
AC Milan wins 3
Draws 4
Napoli wins 3
Goals 14 (1.40 per game)
Goals 10 (1.00 per game)
60%
6
of 10
Over 1.5 Goals
50%
5
of 10
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
4
of 10
Over 3.5 Goals
50%
5
of 10
Both Teams Scored
30%
3
of 10
AC Milan Clean Sheets
30%
3
of 10
Napoli Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 10 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
W
D
W
W
W
W
D
W
W
W
W
D
W
L
W
2.13
15-4-4
PPG Overall
2.27
8-1-2
PPG at Home
2.00
7-3-2
PPG Away
W
D
W
L
D
W
D
W
L
D
L
W
L
L
W
1.59
10-5-7
PPG Overall
1.55
5-2-4
PPG at Home
1.64
5-3-3
PPG Away
Venue form: AC Milan at home +38% on points per game vs Napoli away (2.27 vs 1.64)
Rest & Schedule
8
days rest
Frosinone 2-3 AC Milan
1 game in 14 days · 4 in 30 days
7
days rest
Napoli 2-1 Verona
2 games in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
23
11
12
Win %
65%
73%
58%
Goals per game
3.17
2.45
3.83
Scored
2.00
1.82
2.17
Conceded
1.17
0.64
1.67
Both teams scored
57%
36%
75%
Clean sheets
35%
45%
25%
Failed to score
9%
18%
0%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
22
11
11
Win %
45%
45%
45%
Goals per game
2.64
2.82
2.45
Scored
1.45
1.45
1.45
Conceded
1.18
1.36
1.00
Both teams scored
50%
64%
36%
Clean sheets
27%
18%
36%
Failed to score
36%
27%
45%
Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
AC Milan
AC
Napoli
NAP
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 23/23
86% 19/22
93%
–
Over 1.5
74% 17/23
77% 17/22
76%
74%
Over 2.5
65% 15/23
64% 14/22
64%
50%
Over 3.5
52% 12/23
32% 7/22
42%
24%
Over 4.5
22% 5/23
5% 1/22
13%
–
Under 2.5
35% 8/23
36% 8/22
36%
50%
Both teams score
BTTS
57% 13/23
50% 11/22
53%
51%
BTTS & win
30% 7/23
32% 7/22
31%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
57% 13/23
50% 11/22
53%
–
AC Milan
AC
Napoli
NAP
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
78% 18/23
64% 14/22
71%
–
Over 1.5
57% 13/23
32% 7/22
44%
–
Over 2.5
9% 2/23
5% 1/22
7%
–
BTTS
30% 7/23
18% 4/22
24%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games, 2.55 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.82 at home
1.45 away
AC Milan scored 20 in 11 home games
Napoli scored 16 in 11 away games
AC Milan
AC
Napoli
NAP
Scored over 0.5
91% 21/23
64% 14/22
Scored over 1.5
70% 16/23
55% 12/22
Scored over 2.5
35% 8/23
18% 4/22
Failed to score
9% 2/23
36% 8/22
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.64 at home
1.00 away
AC Milan conceded 7 in 11 home games
Napoli conceded 11 in 11 away games
AC Milan
AC
Napoli
NAP
Conceded over 0.5
65% 15/23
73% 16/22
Conceded over 1.5
35% 8/23
32% 7/22
Conceded over 2.5
9% 2/23
14% 3/22
Clean sheets
35% 8/23
27% 6/22
Streaks
Match Totals
AC Milan
AC
Napoli
NAP
League
Corners
Corners won
4.68
6.62
–
Corners conceded
4.23
3.62
–
Match total
8.91
10.24
9.77
Over 8.5
55% 12/22
81% 17/21
–
Over 9.5
41% 9/22
67% 14/21
–
Over 10.5
32% 7/22
38% 8/21
–
Cards
Cards
2.57
2.55
–
Opponent cards
2.52
2.64
–
Match total
5.09
5.18
4.69
Over 3.5
74% 17/23
73% 16/22
–
Over 4.5
57% 13/23
64% 14/22
–
Shots
Shots
13.48
16.68
–
Opponent shots
14.09
10.23
–
Match total
27.57
26.91
25.17
Shots on target
On target
5.04
5.52
–
Opponent on target
4.13
3.38
–
Match total
9.17
8.90
–
Fouls
Fouls
11.39
10.23
–
Opponent fouls
11.35
12.68
–
Match total
22.74
22.91
–
Possession
All games
56%
60%
–
Home games
53%
62%
–
Away games
60%
58%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
AC Milan
Scored · 46
13%
11%
30%
15%
7%
24%
Conceded · 27
4%
11%
19%
7%
37%
22%
Napoli
Scored · 32
3%
16%
22%
9%
16%
34%
Conceded · 26
8%
12%
15%
23%
19%
23%
74%
Scored first
37%
24%
Goals after 75'
34%
Scored first: AC Milan 17 of 23, Napoli 7 of 19 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
52%43%4%
Leading 12
Level 10
Trailing 1
2.00
points per game
At half-time
83%
10 of 12
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 1
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 252nd 21
At half-time
32%50%18%
Leading 7
Level 11
Trailing 4
1.45
points per game
At half-time
100%
7 of 7
Led at HT, won
50%
2 of 4
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 132nd 19
11
Points won from losing positions in 9 · 12 games
11
8
Points dropped from winning positions in 19 · 10 games
0
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Standings
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
1
18
3
1
51
10
41
57
2
16
5
2
36
14
22
53
3
15
4
4
46
27
19
49
4
▲
12
3
7
40
22
18
39
5
▼
11
5
7
40
26
14
38
6
▼
9
9
4
29
22
7
36
7
10
5
7
32
26
6
35
8
▲
10
4
8
25
23
2
34
9
▼
10
4
8
31
25
6
34
···
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