Stats Prediction
Result probability
14%
25%
61%
AS Roma 14%
Draw 25%
Inter 61%
0.6 – 1.6
goals per side
Expected Goals
0-1
18% chance
Most Likely Score
36%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
35%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
AS Roma · at home
Inter · away
2.33
Goals scored per game
2.27
0.75
Goals conceded per game
0.36
1.60x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
2.08x
0.69x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.25x
Average: 1.46 home goals and 1.09 away goals per game in Serie A 2023-2024
Based on 23 + 22 Serie A 2023-2024 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Cagliari (H) 4-0 · 5 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Last game lineup
3-5-2
vs Juventus (H) 1-0 · 4 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings
10%
40%
50%
AS Roma wins 1
Draws 4
Inter wins 5
Goals 9 (0.90 per game)
Goals 18 (1.80 per game)
80%
8
of 10
Over 1.5 Goals
60%
6
of 10
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
4
of 10
Over 3.5 Goals
60%
6
of 10
Both Teams Scored
10%
1
of 10
AS Roma Clean Sheets
40%
4
of 10
Inter Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 10 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
W
W
W
L
D
W
W
W
L
D
L
W
L
D
W
1.65
11-5-7
PPG Overall
2.25
8-3-1
PPG at Home
1.00
3-2-6
PPG Away
W
W
W
W
D
W
W
W
W
D
W
W
W
W
D
2.59
18-3-1
PPG Overall
2.55
9-1-1
PPG at Home
2.64
9-2-0
PPG Away
Venue form: Inter away +17% on points per game vs AS Roma at home (2.64 vs 2.25)
Rest & Schedule
6
days rest
AS Roma 4-0 Cagliari
2 games in 14 days · 4 in 30 days
7
days rest
Inter 1-0 Juventus
2 games in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
23
12
11
Win %
48%
67%
27%
Goals per game
2.87
3.08
2.64
Scored
1.74
2.33
1.09
Conceded
1.13
0.75
1.55
Both teams scored
61%
58%
64%
Clean sheets
26%
42%
9%
Failed to score
17%
0%
36%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
22
11
11
Win %
82%
82%
82%
Goals per game
2.77
2.91
2.64
Scored
2.32
2.36
2.27
Conceded
0.45
0.55
0.36
Both teams scored
36%
36%
36%
Clean sheets
64%
64%
64%
Failed to score
0%
0%
0%
Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
AS Roma
AS
Inter
INT
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
96% 22/23
100% 22/22
98%
–
Over 1.5
83% 19/23
82% 18/22
82%
74%
Over 2.5
57% 13/23
50% 11/22
53%
50%
Over 3.5
30% 7/23
27% 6/22
29%
24%
Over 4.5
13% 3/23
9% 2/22
11%
–
Under 2.5
43% 10/23
50% 11/22
47%
50%
Both teams score
BTTS
61% 14/23
36% 8/22
49%
51%
BTTS & win
26% 6/23
18% 4/22
22%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
48% 11/23
27% 6/22
38%
–
AS Roma
AS
Inter
INT
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
65% 15/23
82% 18/22
74%
–
Over 1.5
35% 8/23
32% 7/22
33%
–
Over 2.5
9% 2/23
9% 2/22
9%
–
BTTS
13% 3/23
14% 3/22
13%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games, 2.55 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
2.33 at home
2.27 away
AS Roma scored 28 in 12 home games
Inter scored 25 in 11 away games
AS Roma
AS
Inter
INT
Scored over 0.5
83% 19/23
100% 22/22
Scored over 1.5
48% 11/23
68% 15/22
Scored over 2.5
17% 4/23
32% 7/22
Failed to score
17% 4/23
0% 0/22
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.75 at home
0.36 away
AS Roma conceded 9 in 12 home games
Inter conceded 4 in 11 away games
AS Roma
AS
Inter
INT
Conceded over 0.5
74% 17/23
36% 8/22
Conceded over 1.5
26% 6/23
9% 2/22
Conceded over 2.5
9% 2/23
0% 0/22
Clean sheets
26% 6/23
64% 14/22
Streaks
Match Totals
AS Roma
AS
Inter
INT
League
Corners
Corners won
4.95
5.89
–
Corners conceded
3.40
4.39
–
Match total
8.35
10.28
9.77
Over 8.5
35% 7/20
72% 13/18
–
Over 9.5
35% 7/20
61% 11/18
–
Over 10.5
25% 5/20
44% 8/18
–
Cards
Cards
2.57
1.41
–
Opponent cards
3.04
2.09
–
Match total
5.61
3.50
4.69
Over 3.5
83% 19/23
55% 12/22
–
Over 4.5
65% 15/23
27% 6/22
–
Shots
Shots
12.39
15.73
–
Opponent shots
10.48
10.23
–
Match total
22.87
25.95
25.17
Shots on target
On target
3.91
5.23
–
Opponent on target
3.36
2.77
–
Match total
7.27
8.00
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.39
11.27
–
Opponent fouls
12.00
10.77
–
Match total
24.39
22.05
–
Possession
All games
54%
55%
–
Home games
52%
57%
–
Away games
56%
54%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
AS Roma
Scored · 40
10%
23%
5%
18%
7%
37%
Conceded · 26
19%
4%
16%
23%
15%
23%
Inter
Scored · 51
16%
6%
25%
14%
12%
27%
Conceded · 10
0%
20%
10%
30%
40%
0%
55%
Scored first
95%
38%
Goals after 75'
27%
Scored first: AS Roma 12 of 22, Inter 21 of 22 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
30%43%26%
Leading 7
Level 10
Trailing 6
1.35
points per game
At half-time
86%
6 of 7
Led at HT, won
17%
1 of 6
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 152nd 25
At half-time
73%27%
Leading 16
Level 6
Trailing 0
2.45
points per game
At half-time
88%
14 of 16
Led at HT, won
–
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 242nd 27
8
Points won from losing positions in 11 · 2 games
1
6
Points dropped from winning positions in 14 · 21 games
7
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Standings
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
1
18
3
1
51
10
41
57
2
16
5
2
36
14
22
53
3
15
4
4
46
27
19
49
4
▲
12
3
7
40
22
18
39
5
▼
11
5
7
40
26
14
38
6
▼
9
9
4
29
22
7
36
7
10
5
7
32
26
6
35
···
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