Stats Prediction
Result probability
35%
21%
44%
Fiorentina 35%
Draw 21%
AC Milan 44%
1.8 – 2.0
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-1
8% chance
Most Likely Score
72%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
71%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Fiorentina · at home
AC Milan · away
1.55
Goals scored per game
2.17
1.00
Goals conceded per game
1.67
1.06x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.98x
0.91x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.14x
Average: 1.46 home goals and 1.09 away goals per game in Serie A 2023-2024
Based on 22 + 23 Serie A 2023-2024 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Lecce (A) 3-2 · 2 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Frosinone (A) 2-3 · 3 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings
30%
10%
60%
Fiorentina wins 3
Draws 1
AC Milan wins 6
Goals 13 (1.30 per game)
Goals 16 (1.60 per game)
70%
7
of 10
Over 1.5 Goals
50%
5
of 10
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
3
of 10
Over 3.5 Goals
60%
6
of 10
Both Teams Scored
0%
0
of 10
Fiorentina Clean Sheets
40%
4
of 10
AC Milan Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 10 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
L
L
D
L
W
L
L
D
L
W
W
W
D
W
L
1.55
10-4-8
PPG Overall
1.82
6-2-3
PPG at Home
1.27
4-2-5
PPG Away
W
D
W
W
W
W
D
W
W
W
W
D
W
L
W
2.13
15-4-4
PPG Overall
2.27
8-1-2
PPG at Home
2.00
7-3-2
PPG Away
Venue form: AC Milan away +10% on points per game vs Fiorentina at home (2.00 vs 1.82)
Rest & Schedule
57
days rest
Lecce 3-2 Fiorentina
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
56
days rest
Frosinone 2-3 AC Milan
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
22
11
11
Win %
45%
55%
36%
Goals per game
2.55
2.55
2.55
Scored
1.41
1.55
1.27
Conceded
1.14
1.00
1.27
Both teams scored
41%
36%
45%
Clean sheets
27%
36%
18%
Failed to score
32%
27%
36%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
23
11
12
Win %
65%
73%
58%
Goals per game
3.17
2.45
3.83
Scored
2.00
1.82
2.17
Conceded
1.17
0.64
1.67
Both teams scored
57%
36%
75%
Clean sheets
35%
45%
25%
Failed to score
9%
18%
0%
Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Fiorentina
FIO
AC Milan
AC
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 22/22
100% 23/23
100%
–
Over 1.5
64% 14/22
74% 17/23
69%
74%
Over 2.5
45% 10/22
65% 15/23
55%
50%
Over 3.5
32% 7/22
52% 12/23
42%
24%
Over 4.5
14% 3/22
22% 5/23
18%
–
Under 2.5
55% 12/22
35% 8/23
45%
50%
Both teams score
BTTS
41% 9/22
57% 13/23
49%
51%
BTTS & win
18% 4/22
30% 7/23
24%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
32% 7/22
57% 13/23
44%
–
Fiorentina
FIO
AC Milan
AC
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
86% 19/22
78% 18/23
82%
–
Over 1.5
32% 7/22
57% 13/23
44%
–
Over 2.5
9% 2/22
9% 2/23
9%
–
BTTS
14% 3/22
30% 7/23
22%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games, 2.55 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.55 at home
2.17 away
Fiorentina scored 17 in 11 home games
AC Milan scored 26 in 12 away games
Fiorentina
FIO
AC Milan
AC
Scored over 0.5
68% 15/22
91% 21/23
Scored over 1.5
45% 10/22
70% 16/23
Scored over 2.5
23% 5/22
35% 8/23
Failed to score
32% 7/22
9% 2/23
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.00 at home
1.67 away
Fiorentina conceded 11 in 11 home games
AC Milan conceded 20 in 12 away games
Fiorentina
FIO
AC Milan
AC
Conceded over 0.5
73% 16/22
65% 15/23
Conceded over 1.5
27% 6/22
35% 8/23
Conceded over 2.5
9% 2/22
9% 2/23
Clean sheets
27% 6/22
35% 8/23
Streaks
4
Without a win last win 5 games ago
4
Conceded in a row
3
Longest win run this season
8
Unbeaten last loss 9 games ago
12
Scored in a row
5
Over 2.5 goals in a row
4
Conceded in a row
4
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Fiorentina
FIO
AC Milan
AC
League
Corners
Corners won
5.25
4.68
–
Corners conceded
3.45
4.23
–
Match total
8.70
8.91
9.77
Over 8.5
40% 8/20
55% 12/22
–
Over 9.5
35% 7/20
41% 9/22
–
Over 10.5
30% 6/20
32% 7/22
–
Cards
Cards
2.18
2.57
–
Opponent cards
2.18
2.52
–
Match total
4.36
5.09
4.69
Over 3.5
68% 15/22
74% 17/23
–
Over 4.5
45% 10/22
57% 13/23
–
Shots
Shots
13.05
13.48
–
Opponent shots
10.32
14.09
–
Match total
23.36
27.57
25.17
Shots on target
On target
4.41
5.04
–
Opponent on target
4.14
4.13
–
Match total
8.55
9.17
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.73
11.39
–
Opponent fouls
12.59
11.35
–
Match total
25.32
22.74
–
Possession
All games
58%
56%
–
Home games
60%
53%
–
Away games
56%
60%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Fiorentina
Scored · 31
23%
16%
13%
16%
10%
22%
Conceded · 25
20%
16%
12%
20%
12%
20%
AC Milan
Scored · 46
13%
11%
30%
15%
7%
24%
Conceded · 27
4%
11%
19%
7%
37%
22%
50%
Scored first
74%
23%
Goals after 75'
24%
Scored first: Fiorentina 11 of 22, AC Milan 17 of 23 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
36%23%41%
Leading 8
Level 5
Trailing 9
1.32
points per game
At half-time
75%
6 of 8
Led at HT, won
22%
2 of 9
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 162nd 15
At half-time
52%43%4%
Leading 12
Level 10
Trailing 1
2.00
points per game
At half-time
83%
10 of 12
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 1
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 252nd 21
5
Points won from losing positions in 11 · 9 games
11
7
Points dropped from winning positions in 13 · 19 games
8
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Standings
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
1
18
3
1
51
10
41
57
2
16
5
2
36
14
22
53
3
15
4
4
46
27
19
49
4
▲
12
3
7
40
22
18
39
5
▼
11
5
7
40
26
14
38
···
7
10
5
7
32
26
6
35
8
▲
10
4
8
25
23
2
34
9
▼
10
4
8
31
25
6
34
10
▲
8
8
6
20
19
1
32
11
▼
7
8
8
21
28
-7
29
···
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