Stats Prediction
Result probability
33%
24%
43%
Napoli 33%
Draw 24%
Atalanta 43%
1.4 – 1.6
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-1
11% chance
Most Likely Score
58%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Napoli · at home
Atalanta · away
1.45
Goals scored per game
1.30
1.36
Goals conceded per game
1.40
1.00x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.19x
1.25x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.96x
Average: 1.46 home goals and 1.09 away goals per game in Serie A 2023-2024
Based on 22 + 22 Serie A 2023-2024 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Verona (H) 2-1 · 4 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Last game lineup
3-4-1-2
vs Lazio (H) 3-1 · 4 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings
50%
10%
40%
Napoli wins 5
Draws 1
Atalanta wins 4
Goals 20 (2.00 per game)
Goals 17 (1.70 per game)
100%
10
of 10
Over 1.5 Goals
80%
8
of 10
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
5
of 10
Over 3.5 Goals
80%
8
of 10
Both Teams Scored
10%
1
of 10
Napoli Clean Sheets
10%
1
of 10
Atalanta Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 10 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
W
D
W
L
D
W
D
W
L
D
L
W
L
L
W
1.59
10-5-7
PPG Overall
1.55
5-2-4
PPG at Home
1.64
5-3-3
PPG Away
W
W
W
D
W
W
W
W
D
W
L
W
W
L
L
1.77
12-3-7
PPG Overall
2.33
9-1-2
PPG at Home
1.10
3-2-5
PPG Away
Venue form: Napoli at home +41% on points per game vs Atalanta away (1.55 vs 1.10)
Rest & Schedule
55
days rest
Napoli 2-1 Verona
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
55
days rest
Atalanta 3-1 Lazio
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
22
11
11
Win %
45%
45%
45%
Goals per game
2.64
2.82
2.45
Scored
1.45
1.45
1.45
Conceded
1.18
1.36
1.00
Both teams scored
50%
64%
36%
Clean sheets
27%
18%
36%
Failed to score
36%
27%
45%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
22
12
10
Win %
55%
75%
30%
Goals per game
2.82
2.92
2.70
Scored
1.82
2.25
1.30
Conceded
1.00
0.67
1.40
Both teams scored
45%
42%
50%
Clean sheets
45%
58%
30%
Failed to score
14%
8%
20%
Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Napoli
NAP
Atalanta
ATA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
86% 19/22
95% 21/22
91%
–
Over 1.5
77% 17/22
82% 18/22
80%
74%
Over 2.5
64% 14/22
55% 12/22
59%
50%
Over 3.5
32% 7/22
27% 6/22
30%
24%
Over 4.5
5% 1/22
23% 5/22
14%
–
Under 2.5
36% 8/22
45% 10/22
41%
50%
Both teams score
BTTS
50% 11/22
45% 10/22
48%
51%
BTTS & win
32% 7/22
14% 3/22
23%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
50% 11/22
36% 8/22
43%
–
Napoli
NAP
Atalanta
ATA
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
64% 14/22
77% 17/22
70%
–
Over 1.5
32% 7/22
45% 10/22
39%
–
Over 2.5
5% 1/22
14% 3/22
9%
–
BTTS
18% 4/22
18% 4/22
18%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games, 2.55 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.45 at home
1.30 away
Napoli scored 16 in 11 home games
Atalanta scored 13 in 10 away games
Napoli
NAP
Atalanta
ATA
Scored over 0.5
64% 14/22
86% 19/22
Scored over 1.5
55% 12/22
55% 12/22
Scored over 2.5
18% 4/22
27% 6/22
Failed to score
36% 8/22
14% 3/22
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.36 at home
1.40 away
Napoli conceded 15 in 11 home games
Atalanta conceded 14 in 10 away games
Napoli
NAP
Atalanta
ATA
Conceded over 0.5
73% 16/22
55% 12/22
Conceded over 1.5
32% 7/22
32% 7/22
Conceded over 2.5
14% 3/22
14% 3/22
Clean sheets
27% 6/22
45% 10/22
Streaks
Match Totals
Napoli
NAP
Atalanta
ATA
League
Corners
Corners won
6.62
5.82
–
Corners conceded
3.62
4.05
–
Match total
10.24
9.86
9.77
Over 8.5
81% 17/21
64% 14/22
–
Over 9.5
67% 14/21
55% 12/22
–
Over 10.5
38% 8/21
32% 7/22
–
Cards
Cards
2.55
2.00
–
Opponent cards
2.64
1.91
–
Match total
5.18
3.91
4.69
Over 3.5
73% 16/22
55% 12/22
–
Over 4.5
64% 14/22
36% 8/22
–
Shots
Shots
16.68
14.41
–
Opponent shots
10.23
11.09
–
Match total
26.91
25.50
25.17
Shots on target
On target
5.52
5.33
–
Opponent on target
3.38
3.67
–
Match total
8.90
9.00
–
Fouls
Fouls
10.23
12.59
–
Opponent fouls
12.68
10.41
–
Match total
22.91
23.00
–
Possession
All games
60%
52%
–
Home games
62%
52%
–
Away games
58%
51%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Napoli
Scored · 32
3%
16%
22%
9%
16%
34%
Conceded · 26
8%
12%
15%
23%
19%
23%
Atalanta
Scored · 40
15%
8%
20%
20%
10%
27%
Conceded · 22
18%
9%
32%
9%
0%
32%
37%
Scored first
62%
34%
Goals after 75'
28%
Scored first: Napoli 7 of 19, Atalanta 13 of 21 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
32%50%18%
Leading 7
Level 11
Trailing 4
1.45
points per game
At half-time
100%
7 of 7
Led at HT, won
50%
2 of 4
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 132nd 19
At half-time
32%32%36%
Leading 7
Level 7
Trailing 8
1.27
points per game
At half-time
100%
7 of 7
Led at HT, won
25%
2 of 8
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 172nd 23
11
Points won from losing positions in 12 · 9 games
4
0
Points dropped from winning positions in 10 · 14 games
5
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Standings
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
···
2
16
5
2
36
14
22
53
3
15
4
4
46
27
19
49
4
▲
12
3
7
40
22
18
39
5
▼
11
5
7
40
26
14
38
6
▼
9
9
4
29
22
7
36
7
10
5
7
32
26
6
35
8
▲
10
4
8
25
23
2
34
9
▼
10
4
8
31
25
6
34
···
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