Stats Prediction
Result probability
70%
21%
9%
AC Milan 70%
Draw 21%
Lecce 9%
1.8 – 0.5
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-0
18% chance
Most Likely Score
40%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
32%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
AC Milan · at home
Lecce · away
1.82
Goals scored per game
0.82
0.64
Goals conceded per game
1.45
1.25x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.75x
0.58x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.00x
Average: 1.46 home goals and 1.09 away goals per game in Serie A 2023-2024
Based on 23 + 23 Serie A 2023-2024 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Frosinone (A) 2-3 · 3 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Fiorentina (H) 3-2 · 2 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 5 meetings
40%
60%
AC Milan wins 2
Draws 3
Lecce wins 0
Goals 12 (2.40 per game)
Goals 7 (1.40 per game)
100%
5
of 5
Over 1.5 Goals
80%
4
of 5
Over 2.5 Goals
80%
4
of 5
Over 3.5 Goals
80%
4
of 5
Both Teams Scored
20%
1
of 5
AC Milan Clean Sheets
0%
0
of 5
Lecce Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 5 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
W
D
W
W
W
W
D
W
W
W
W
D
W
L
W
2.13
15-4-4
PPG Overall
2.27
8-1-2
PPG at Home
2.00
7-3-2
PPG Away
W
L
L
L
D
W
L
L
L
D
L
L
W
D
D
1.04
5-9-9
PPG Overall
1.58
5-4-3
PPG at Home
0.45
0-5-6
PPG Away
Venue form: AC Milan at home +404% on points per game vs Lecce away (2.27 vs 0.45)
Rest & Schedule
64
days rest
Frosinone 2-3 AC Milan
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
65
days rest
Lecce 3-2 Fiorentina
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
23
11
12
Win %
65%
73%
58%
Goals per game
3.17
2.45
3.83
Scored
2.00
1.82
2.17
Conceded
1.17
0.64
1.67
Both teams scored
57%
36%
75%
Clean sheets
35%
45%
25%
Failed to score
9%
18%
0%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
23
12
11
Win %
22%
42%
0%
Goals per game
2.48
2.67
2.27
Scored
1.04
1.25
0.82
Conceded
1.43
1.42
1.45
Both teams scored
61%
58%
64%
Clean sheets
9%
17%
0%
Failed to score
30%
25%
36%
Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
AC Milan
AC
Lecce
LEC
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 23/23
100% 23/23
100%
–
Over 1.5
74% 17/23
78% 18/23
76%
74%
Over 2.5
65% 15/23
43% 10/23
54%
50%
Over 3.5
52% 12/23
22% 5/23
37%
24%
Over 4.5
22% 5/23
4% 1/23
13%
–
Under 2.5
35% 8/23
57% 13/23
46%
50%
Both teams score
BTTS
57% 13/23
61% 14/23
59%
51%
BTTS & win
30% 7/23
13% 3/23
22%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
57% 13/23
35% 8/23
46%
–
AC Milan
AC
Lecce
LEC
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
78% 18/23
61% 14/23
70%
–
Over 1.5
57% 13/23
22% 5/23
39%
–
Over 2.5
9% 2/23
0% 0/23
4%
–
BTTS
30% 7/23
13% 3/23
22%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games, 2.55 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.82 at home
0.82 away
AC Milan scored 20 in 11 home games
Lecce scored 9 in 11 away games
AC Milan
AC
Lecce
LEC
Scored over 0.5
91% 21/23
70% 16/23
Scored over 1.5
70% 16/23
30% 7/23
Scored over 2.5
35% 8/23
4% 1/23
Failed to score
9% 2/23
30% 7/23
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.64 at home
1.45 away
AC Milan conceded 7 in 11 home games
Lecce conceded 16 in 11 away games
AC Milan
AC
Lecce
LEC
Conceded over 0.5
65% 15/23
91% 21/23
Conceded over 1.5
35% 8/23
39% 9/23
Conceded over 2.5
9% 2/23
9% 2/23
Clean sheets
35% 8/23
9% 2/23
Streaks
Match Totals
AC Milan
AC
Lecce
LEC
League
Corners
Corners won
4.68
4.09
–
Corners conceded
4.23
4.77
–
Match total
8.91
8.86
9.77
Over 8.5
55% 12/22
55% 12/22
–
Over 9.5
41% 9/22
41% 9/22
–
Over 10.5
32% 7/22
32% 7/22
–
Cards
Cards
2.57
2.78
–
Opponent cards
2.52
2.65
–
Match total
5.09
5.43
4.69
Over 3.5
74% 17/23
83% 19/23
–
Over 4.5
57% 13/23
65% 15/23
–
Shots
Shots
13.48
13.26
–
Opponent shots
14.09
13.78
–
Match total
27.57
27.04
25.17
Shots on target
On target
5.04
4.23
–
Opponent on target
4.13
4.77
–
Match total
9.17
9.00
–
Fouls
Fouls
11.39
13.57
–
Opponent fouls
11.35
14.09
–
Match total
22.74
27.65
–
Possession
All games
56%
45%
–
Home games
53%
46%
–
Away games
60%
44%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
AC Milan
Scored · 46
13%
11%
30%
15%
7%
24%
Conceded · 27
4%
11%
19%
7%
37%
22%
Lecce
Scored · 24
13%
8%
8%
8%
21%
42%
Conceded · 33
3%
18%
15%
21%
18%
25%
74%
Scored first
43%
24%
Goals after 75'
42%
Scored first: AC Milan 17 of 23, Lecce 10 of 23 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
52%43%4%
Leading 12
Level 10
Trailing 1
2.00
points per game
At half-time
83%
10 of 12
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 1
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 252nd 21
At half-time
17%52%30%
Leading 4
Level 12
Trailing 7
1.04
points per game
At half-time
50%
2 of 4
Led at HT, won
57%
4 of 7
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 72nd 17
11
Points won from losing positions in 9 · 16 games
11
8
Points dropped from winning positions in 19 · 11 games
14
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Standings
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
1
18
3
1
51
10
41
57
2
16
5
2
36
14
22
53
3
15
4
4
46
27
19
49
4
▲
12
3
7
40
22
18
39
5
▼
11
5
7
40
26
14
38
···
11
▼
7
8
8
21
28
-7
29
12
▲
7
8
8
24
26
-2
29
13
5
9
9
24
33
-9
24
14
▼
6
5
12
31
44
-13
23
15
5
4
13
28
41
-13
19
···
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