Stats Prediction
Result probability
34%
28%
38%
Toulouse 34%
Draw 28%
Montpellier 38%
1.2 – 1.3
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-1
13% chance
Most Likely Score
43%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
49%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
TOU · at home
MON · away
1.11
Goals scored per game
1.10
1.22
Goals conceded per game
1.50
0.78x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.03x
1.14x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.05x
Average: 1.43 home goals and 1.07 away goals per game in Ligue 1 2023-2024
Based on 20 + 20 Ligue 1 2023-2024 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Reims (A) 2-3 · 4 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Last game lineup
5-4-1
vs Rennes (A) 2-1 · 3 Feb 2024
Substitutes
41
Head to Head
Last 3 meetings
67%
33%
Toulouse wins 2
Draws 0
Montpellier wins 1
Goals 6 (2.00 per game)
Goals 6 (2.00 per game)
100%
3
of 3
Over 1.5 Goals
100%
3
of 3
Over 2.5 Goals
33%
1
of 3
Over 3.5 Goals
67%
2
of 3
Both Teams Scored
0%
0
of 3
Toulouse Clean Sheets
33%
1
of 3
Montpellier Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
W
L
W
L
D
W
L
W
L
D
L
D
L
D
L
1.00
4-8-8
PPG Overall
0.89
1-5-3
PPG at Home
1.09
3-3-5
PPG Away
L
D
L
D
W
L
D
L
D
W
D
L
D
L
D
1.00
4-8-8
PPG Overall
1.00
1-7-2
PPG at Home
1.00
3-1-6
PPG Away
Venue form: Montpellier away +12% on points per game vs Toulouse at home (1.00 vs 0.89)
Rest & Schedule
89
days rest
Reims 2-3 Toulouse
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
90
days rest
Rennes 2-1 Montpellier
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
20
9
11
Win %
20%
11%
27%
Goals per game
2.30
2.33
2.27
Scored
0.95
1.11
0.82
Conceded
1.35
1.22
1.45
Both teams scored
55%
67%
45%
Clean sheets
20%
22%
18%
Failed to score
35%
22%
45%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
20
10
10
Win %
20%
10%
30%
Goals per game
2.25
1.90
2.60
Scored
1.00
0.90
1.10
Conceded
1.25
1.00
1.50
Both teams scored
40%
50%
30%
Clean sheets
35%
50%
20%
Failed to score
45%
40%
50%
Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Toulouse
TOU
Montpellier
MON
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
90% 18/20
80% 16/20
85%
–
Over 1.5
80% 16/20
70% 14/20
75%
72%
Over 2.5
45% 9/20
45% 9/20
45%
48%
Over 3.5
10% 2/20
25% 5/20
18%
26%
Over 4.5
5% 1/20
5% 1/20
5%
–
Under 2.5
55% 11/20
55% 11/20
55%
52%
Both teams score
BTTS
55% 11/20
40% 8/20
48%
49%
BTTS & win
10% 2/20
5% 1/20
8%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
30% 6/20
30% 6/20
30%
–
Toulouse
TOU
Montpellier
MON
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
60% 12/20
75% 15/20
68%
–
Over 1.5
30% 6/20
15% 3/20
23%
–
Over 2.5
15% 3/20
5% 1/20
10%
–
BTTS
15% 3/20
5% 1/20
10%
–
% of each club's games · League = Ligue 1 2023-2024 (180 games, 2.51 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.11 at home
1.10 away
Toulouse scored 10 in 9 home games
Montpellier scored 11 in 10 away games
Toulouse
TOU
Montpellier
MON
Scored over 0.5
65% 13/20
55% 11/20
Scored over 1.5
20% 4/20
25% 5/20
Scored over 2.5
10% 2/20
15% 3/20
Failed to score
35% 7/20
45% 9/20
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.22 at home
1.50 away
Toulouse conceded 11 in 9 home games
Montpellier conceded 15 in 10 away games
Toulouse
TOU
Montpellier
MON
Conceded over 0.5
80% 16/20
65% 13/20
Conceded over 1.5
45% 9/20
45% 9/20
Conceded over 2.5
10% 2/20
15% 3/20
Clean sheets
20% 4/20
35% 7/20
Streaks
1
Won last game
2
Conceded in a row
4
Without a win last win 5 games ago
Match Totals
Toulouse
TOU
Montpellier
MON
League
Corners
Corners won
3.84
3.84
–
Corners conceded
5.63
5.21
–
Match total
9.47
9.05
9.45
Over 8.5
53% 10/19
42% 8/19
–
Over 9.5
47% 9/19
42% 8/19
–
Over 10.5
32% 6/19
21% 4/19
–
Cards
Cards
2.55
2.15
–
Opponent cards
2.15
2.60
–
Match total
4.70
4.75
3.98
Over 3.5
80% 16/20
55% 11/20
–
Over 4.5
50% 10/20
40% 8/20
–
Shots
Shots
11.40
13.60
–
Opponent shots
14.35
15.20
–
Match total
25.75
28.80
25.14
Shots on target
On target
4.15
5.11
–
Opponent on target
4.45
5.21
–
Match total
8.60
10.32
–
Fouls
Fouls
14.95
12.65
–
Opponent fouls
13.25
14.60
–
Match total
28.20
27.25
–
Possession
All games
49%
44%
–
Home games
49%
45%
–
Away games
49%
42%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Ligue 1 2023-2024 (180 games) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Toulouse
Scored · 19
26%
5%
26%
11%
16%
16%
Conceded · 27
7%
15%
15%
19%
11%
33%
Montpellier
Scored · 20
15%
10%
20%
15%
25%
15%
Conceded · 25
28%
4%
8%
20%
24%
16%
50%
Scored first
38%
16%
Goals after 75'
15%
Scored first: Toulouse 9 of 18, Montpellier 6 of 16 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
25%45%30%
Leading 5
Level 9
Trailing 6
1.20
points per game
At half-time
60%
3 of 5
Led at HT, won
33%
2 of 6
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 112nd 8
At half-time
30%25%45%
Leading 6
Level 5
Trailing 9
1.15
points per game
At half-time
67%
4 of 6
Led at HT, won
22%
2 of 9
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 92nd 11
6
Points won from losing positions in 12 · 10 games
2
15
Points dropped from winning positions in 10 · 7 games
6
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Standings
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
···
10
6
7
7
21
26
-5
25
11
5
9
6
23
24
-1
24
12
4
8
8
20
25
-5
20
13
4
8
8
19
27
-8
20
14
5
4
11
20
33
-13
19
15
5
4
11
20
31
-11
19
···
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