Stats Prediction
Result probability
81%
14%
AC Milan 81%
Draw 14%
Salernitana 5%
2.3 – 0.4
goals per side
Expected Goals
2-0
18% chance
Most Likely Score
49%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
28%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
AC Milan · at home
Salernitana · away
1.82
Goals scored per game
0.64
0.64
Goals conceded per game
1.82
1.25x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.58x
0.58x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.25x
Average: 1.46 home goals and 1.09 away goals per game in Serie A 2023-2024
Based on 23 + 23 Serie A 2023-2024 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Frosinone (A) 2-3 · 3 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs Torino (A) 0-0 · 4 Feb 2024
Substitutes
11
65
Head to Head
Last 5 meetings
40%
60%
AC Milan wins 2
Draws 3
Salernitana wins 0
Goals 9 (1.80 per game)
Goals 6 (1.20 per game)
100%
5
of 5
Over 1.5 Goals
60%
3
of 5
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
2
of 5
Over 3.5 Goals
80%
4
of 5
Both Teams Scored
20%
1
of 5
AC Milan Clean Sheets
0%
0
of 5
Salernitana Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 5 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
W
D
W
W
W
W
D
W
W
W
W
D
W
L
W
2.13
15-4-4
PPG Overall
2.27
8-1-2
PPG at Home
2.00
7-3-2
PPG Away
D
L
L
L
L
D
L
L
L
L
W
D
L
L
L
0.57
2-7-14
PPG Overall
0.58
1-4-7
PPG at Home
0.55
1-3-7
PPG Away
Venue form: AC Milan at home +313% on points per game vs Salernitana away (2.27 vs 0.55)
Rest & Schedule
113
days rest
Frosinone 2-3 AC Milan
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
112
days rest
Torino 0-0 Salernitana
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
23
11
12
Win %
65%
73%
58%
Goals per game
3.17
2.45
3.83
Scored
2.00
1.82
2.17
Conceded
1.17
0.64
1.67
Both teams scored
57%
36%
75%
Clean sheets
35%
45%
25%
Failed to score
9%
18%
0%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
23
12
11
Win %
9%
8%
9%
Goals per game
2.74
3.00
2.45
Scored
0.83
1.00
0.64
Conceded
1.91
2.00
1.82
Both teams scored
57%
75%
36%
Clean sheets
9%
0%
18%
Failed to score
39%
25%
55%
Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
AC Milan
AC
Salernitana
SAL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 23/23
96% 22/23
98%
–
Over 1.5
74% 17/23
83% 19/23
78%
74%
Over 2.5
65% 15/23
65% 15/23
65%
50%
Over 3.5
52% 12/23
26% 6/23
39%
24%
Over 4.5
22% 5/23
4% 1/23
13%
–
Under 2.5
35% 8/23
35% 8/23
35%
50%
Both teams score
BTTS
57% 13/23
57% 13/23
57%
51%
BTTS & win
30% 7/23
4% 1/23
17%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
57% 13/23
48% 11/23
52%
–
AC Milan
AC
Salernitana
SAL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
78% 18/23
74% 17/23
76%
–
Over 1.5
57% 13/23
39% 9/23
48%
–
Over 2.5
9% 2/23
4% 1/23
7%
–
BTTS
30% 7/23
22% 5/23
26%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games, 2.55 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.82 at home
0.64 away
AC Milan scored 20 in 11 home games
Salernitana scored 7 in 11 away games
AC Milan
AC
Salernitana
SAL
Scored over 0.5
91% 21/23
61% 14/23
Scored over 1.5
70% 16/23
22% 5/23
Scored over 2.5
35% 8/23
0% 0/23
Failed to score
9% 2/23
39% 9/23
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.64 at home
1.82 away
AC Milan conceded 7 in 11 home games
Salernitana conceded 20 in 11 away games
AC Milan
AC
Salernitana
SAL
Conceded over 0.5
65% 15/23
91% 21/23
Conceded over 1.5
35% 8/23
70% 16/23
Conceded over 2.5
9% 2/23
22% 5/23
Clean sheets
35% 8/23
9% 2/23
Streaks
8
Unbeaten last loss 9 games ago
12
Scored in a row
5
Over 2.5 goals in a row
4
Conceded in a row
4
Longest win run this season
5
Without a win last win 6 games ago
Match Totals
AC Milan
AC
Salernitana
SAL
League
Corners
Corners won
4.68
4.57
–
Corners conceded
4.23
6.19
–
Match total
8.91
10.76
9.77
Over 8.5
55% 12/22
76% 16/21
–
Over 9.5
41% 9/22
76% 16/21
–
Over 10.5
32% 7/22
62% 13/21
–
Cards
Cards
2.57
2.52
–
Opponent cards
2.52
2.35
–
Match total
5.09
4.87
4.69
Over 3.5
74% 17/23
65% 15/23
–
Over 4.5
57% 13/23
48% 11/23
–
Shots
Shots
13.48
10.57
–
Opponent shots
14.09
14.78
–
Match total
27.57
25.35
25.17
Shots on target
On target
5.04
3.32
–
Opponent on target
4.13
5.50
–
Match total
9.17
8.82
–
Fouls
Fouls
11.39
12.57
–
Opponent fouls
11.35
13.00
–
Match total
22.74
25.57
–
Possession
All games
56%
44%
–
Home games
53%
43%
–
Away games
60%
44%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
AC Milan
Scored · 46
13%
11%
30%
15%
7%
24%
Conceded · 27
4%
11%
19%
7%
37%
22%
Salernitana
Scored · 19
16%
11%
16%
21%
26%
10%
Conceded · 44
18%
11%
14%
18%
7%
32%
74%
Scored first
27%
24%
Goals after 75'
11%
Scored first: AC Milan 17 of 23, Salernitana 6 of 22 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
52%43%4%
Leading 12
Level 10
Trailing 1
2.00
points per game
At half-time
83%
10 of 12
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 1
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 252nd 21
At half-time
13%43%43%
Leading 3
Level 10
Trailing 10
0.83
points per game
At half-time
0%
0 of 3
Led at HT, won
20%
2 of 10
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 82nd 11
11
Points won from losing positions in 9 · 20 games
8
8
Points dropped from winning positions in 19 · 9 games
18
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Standings
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
1
18
3
1
51
10
41
57
2
16
5
2
36
14
22
53
3
15
4
4
46
27
19
49
4
▲
12
3
7
40
22
18
39
5
▼
11
5
7
40
26
14
38
···
18
▼
4
6
13
21
42
-21
18
19
▼
4
6
13
15
36
-21
18
20
2
7
14
19
44
-25
13
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