Stats Prediction
Result probability
22%
22%
56%
Cagliari 22%
Draw 22%
Fiorentina 56%
1.1 – 1.9
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-1
10% chance
Most Likely Score
58%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Cagliari · at home
Fiorentina · away
1.27
Goals scored per game
1.27
1.64
Goals conceded per game
1.27
0.87x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.16x
1.50x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.87x
Average: 1.46 home goals and 1.09 away goals per game in Serie A 2023-2024
Based on 23 + 22 Serie A 2023-2024 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
3-5-2
vs AS Roma (A) 4-0 · 5 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Lecce (A) 3-2 · 2 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 9 meetings
22%
44%
33%
Cagliari wins 2
Draws 4
Fiorentina wins 3
Goals 9 (1.00 per game)
Goals 12 (1.33 per game)
67%
6
of 9
Over 1.5 Goals
44%
4
of 9
Over 2.5 Goals
11%
1
of 9
Over 3.5 Goals
44%
4
of 9
Both Teams Scored
22%
2
of 9
Cagliari Clean Sheets
56%
5
of 9
Fiorentina Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 9 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
L
L
L
W
D
L
L
L
W
D
D
L
L
W
L
0.78
4-6-13
PPG Overall
1.36
4-3-4
PPG at Home
0.25
0-3-9
PPG Away
L
L
D
L
W
L
L
D
L
W
W
W
D
W
L
1.55
10-4-8
PPG Overall
1.82
6-2-3
PPG at Home
1.27
4-2-5
PPG Away
Venue form: Cagliari at home +7% on points per game vs Fiorentina away (1.36 vs 1.27)
Rest & Schedule
111
days rest
AS Roma 4-0 Cagliari
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
114
days rest
Lecce 3-2 Fiorentina
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
23
11
12
Win %
17%
36%
0%
Goals per game
2.74
2.91
2.58
Scored
0.91
1.27
0.58
Conceded
1.83
1.64
2.00
Both teams scored
61%
73%
50%
Clean sheets
13%
18%
8%
Failed to score
39%
27%
50%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
22
11
11
Win %
45%
55%
36%
Goals per game
2.55
2.55
2.55
Scored
1.41
1.55
1.27
Conceded
1.14
1.00
1.27
Both teams scored
41%
36%
45%
Clean sheets
27%
36%
18%
Failed to score
32%
27%
36%
Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Cagliari
CAG
Fiorentina
FIO
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
87% 20/23
100% 22/22
93%
–
Over 1.5
83% 19/23
64% 14/22
73%
74%
Over 2.5
61% 14/23
45% 10/22
53%
50%
Over 3.5
26% 6/23
32% 7/22
29%
24%
Over 4.5
9% 2/23
14% 3/22
11%
–
Under 2.5
39% 9/23
55% 12/22
47%
50%
Both teams score
BTTS
61% 14/23
41% 9/22
51%
51%
BTTS & win
17% 4/23
18% 4/22
18%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
52% 12/23
32% 7/22
42%
–
Cagliari
CAG
Fiorentina
FIO
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
65% 15/23
86% 19/22
76%
–
Over 1.5
35% 8/23
32% 7/22
33%
–
Over 2.5
4% 1/23
9% 2/22
7%
–
BTTS
9% 2/23
14% 3/22
11%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games, 2.55 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.27 at home
1.27 away
Cagliari scored 14 in 11 home games
Fiorentina scored 14 in 11 away games
Cagliari
CAG
Fiorentina
FIO
Scored over 0.5
61% 14/23
68% 15/22
Scored over 1.5
22% 5/23
45% 10/22
Scored over 2.5
4% 1/23
23% 5/22
Failed to score
39% 9/23
32% 7/22
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.64 at home
1.27 away
Cagliari conceded 18 in 11 home games
Fiorentina conceded 14 in 11 away games
Cagliari
CAG
Fiorentina
FIO
Conceded over 0.5
87% 20/23
73% 16/22
Conceded over 1.5
61% 14/23
27% 6/22
Conceded over 2.5
26% 6/23
9% 2/22
Clean sheets
13% 3/23
27% 6/22
Streaks
3
Lost in a row
5
Conceded in a row
4
Over 2.5 goals in a row
2
Longest win run this season
4
Without a win last win 5 games ago
4
Conceded in a row
3
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Cagliari
CAG
Fiorentina
FIO
League
Corners
Corners won
4.83
5.25
–
Corners conceded
6.22
3.45
–
Match total
11.04
8.70
9.77
Over 8.5
65% 15/23
40% 8/20
–
Over 9.5
65% 15/23
35% 7/20
–
Over 10.5
61% 14/23
30% 6/20
–
Cards
Cards
2.13
2.18
–
Opponent cards
2.30
2.18
–
Match total
4.43
4.36
4.69
Over 3.5
57% 13/23
68% 15/22
–
Over 4.5
43% 10/23
45% 10/22
–
Shots
Shots
12.57
13.05
–
Opponent shots
13.22
10.32
–
Match total
25.78
23.36
25.17
Shots on target
On target
3.64
4.41
–
Opponent on target
4.05
4.14
–
Match total
7.68
8.55
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.57
12.73
–
Opponent fouls
10.96
12.59
–
Match total
23.52
25.32
–
Offsides
Offsides
1.74
2.06
–
Opponent offsides
2.26
2.71
–
Match total
4.00
4.76
–
Possession
All games
44%
58%
–
Home games
45%
60%
–
Away games
43%
56%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Cagliari
Scored · 21
5%
14%
5%
5%
28%
43%
Conceded · 42
10%
21%
14%
24%
14%
17%
Fiorentina
Scored · 31
23%
16%
13%
16%
10%
22%
Conceded · 25
20%
16%
12%
20%
12%
20%
30%
Scored first
50%
43%
Goals after 75'
23%
Scored first: Cagliari 6 of 20, Fiorentina 11 of 22 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
13%39%48%
Leading 3
Level 9
Trailing 11
0.78
points per game
At half-time
0%
0 of 3
Led at HT, won
27%
3 of 11
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 52nd 16
At half-time
36%23%41%
Leading 8
Level 5
Trailing 9
1.32
points per game
At half-time
75%
6 of 8
Led at HT, won
22%
2 of 9
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 162nd 15
10
Points won from losing positions in 17 · 11 games
5
13
Points dropped from winning positions in 9 · 13 games
7
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Standings
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
···
7
10
5
7
32
26
6
35
8
▲
10
4
8
25
23
2
34
9
▼
10
4
8
31
25
6
34
10
▲
8
8
6
20
19
1
32
11
▼
7
8
8
21
28
-7
29
···
16
▲
2
13
8
23
37
-14
19
17
▲
4
6
13
21
32
-11
18
18
▼
4
6
13
21
42
-21
18
19
▼
4
6
13
15
36
-21
18
20
2
7
14
19
44
-25
13
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