Stats Prediction
Result probability
84%
12%
AC Milan 84%
Draw 12%
Cagliari 4%
2.5 – 0.3
goals per side
Expected Goals
2-0
18% chance
Most Likely Score
54%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
26%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
AC Milan · at home
Cagliari · away
1.82
Goals scored per game
0.58
0.64
Goals conceded per game
2.00
1.25x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.53x
0.58x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.37x
Average: 1.46 home goals and 1.09 away goals per game in Serie A 2023-2024
Based on 23 + 23 Serie A 2023-2024 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Frosinone (A) 2-3 · 3 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Last game lineup
3-5-2
vs AS Roma (A) 4-0 · 5 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 9 meetings
78%
22%
AC Milan wins 7
Draws 2
Cagliari wins 0
Goals 19 (2.11 per game)
Goals 3 (0.33 per game)
78%
7
of 9
Over 1.5 Goals
44%
4
of 9
Over 2.5 Goals
22%
2
of 9
Over 3.5 Goals
33%
3
of 9
Both Teams Scored
67%
6
of 9
AC Milan Clean Sheets
11%
1
of 9
Cagliari Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 9 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
W
D
W
W
W
W
D
W
W
W
W
D
W
L
W
2.13
15-4-4
PPG Overall
2.27
8-1-2
PPG at Home
2.00
7-3-2
PPG Away
L
L
L
W
D
L
L
L
W
D
D
L
L
W
L
0.78
4-6-13
PPG Overall
1.36
4-3-4
PPG at Home
0.25
0-3-9
PPG Away
Venue form: AC Milan at home +808% on points per game vs Cagliari away (2.27 vs 0.25)
Rest & Schedule
99
days rest
Frosinone 2-3 AC Milan
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
97
days rest
AS Roma 4-0 Cagliari
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
23
11
12
Win %
65%
73%
58%
Goals per game
3.17
2.45
3.83
Scored
2.00
1.82
2.17
Conceded
1.17
0.64
1.67
Both teams scored
57%
36%
75%
Clean sheets
35%
45%
25%
Failed to score
9%
18%
0%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
23
11
12
Win %
17%
36%
0%
Goals per game
2.74
2.91
2.58
Scored
0.91
1.27
0.58
Conceded
1.83
1.64
2.00
Both teams scored
61%
73%
50%
Clean sheets
13%
18%
8%
Failed to score
39%
27%
50%
Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
AC Milan
AC
Cagliari
CAG
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 23/23
87% 20/23
93%
–
Over 1.5
74% 17/23
83% 19/23
78%
74%
Over 2.5
65% 15/23
61% 14/23
63%
50%
Over 3.5
52% 12/23
26% 6/23
39%
24%
Over 4.5
22% 5/23
9% 2/23
15%
–
Under 2.5
35% 8/23
39% 9/23
37%
50%
Both teams score
BTTS
57% 13/23
61% 14/23
59%
51%
BTTS & win
30% 7/23
17% 4/23
24%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
57% 13/23
52% 12/23
54%
–
AC Milan
AC
Cagliari
CAG
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
78% 18/23
65% 15/23
72%
–
Over 1.5
57% 13/23
35% 8/23
46%
–
Over 2.5
9% 2/23
4% 1/23
7%
–
BTTS
30% 7/23
9% 2/23
20%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games, 2.55 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.82 at home
0.58 away
AC Milan scored 20 in 11 home games
Cagliari scored 7 in 12 away games
AC Milan
AC
Cagliari
CAG
Scored over 0.5
91% 21/23
61% 14/23
Scored over 1.5
70% 16/23
22% 5/23
Scored over 2.5
35% 8/23
4% 1/23
Failed to score
9% 2/23
39% 9/23
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.64 at home
2.00 away
AC Milan conceded 7 in 11 home games
Cagliari conceded 24 in 12 away games
AC Milan
AC
Cagliari
CAG
Conceded over 0.5
65% 15/23
87% 20/23
Conceded over 1.5
35% 8/23
61% 14/23
Conceded over 2.5
9% 2/23
26% 6/23
Clean sheets
35% 8/23
13% 3/23
Streaks
Match Totals
AC Milan
AC
Cagliari
CAG
League
Corners
Corners won
4.68
4.83
–
Corners conceded
4.23
6.22
–
Match total
8.91
11.04
9.77
Over 8.5
55% 12/22
65% 15/23
–
Over 9.5
41% 9/22
65% 15/23
–
Over 10.5
32% 7/22
61% 14/23
–
Cards
Cards
2.57
2.13
–
Opponent cards
2.52
2.30
–
Match total
5.09
4.43
4.69
Over 3.5
74% 17/23
57% 13/23
–
Over 4.5
57% 13/23
43% 10/23
–
Shots
Shots
13.48
12.57
–
Opponent shots
14.09
13.22
–
Match total
27.57
25.78
25.17
Shots on target
On target
5.04
3.64
–
Opponent on target
4.13
4.05
–
Match total
9.17
7.68
–
Fouls
Fouls
11.39
12.57
–
Opponent fouls
11.35
10.96
–
Match total
22.74
23.52
–
Possession
All games
56%
44%
–
Home games
53%
45%
–
Away games
60%
43%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
AC Milan
Scored · 46
13%
11%
30%
15%
7%
24%
Conceded · 27
4%
11%
19%
7%
37%
22%
Cagliari
Scored · 21
5%
14%
5%
5%
28%
43%
Conceded · 42
10%
21%
14%
24%
14%
17%
74%
Scored first
30%
24%
Goals after 75'
43%
Scored first: AC Milan 17 of 23, Cagliari 6 of 20 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
52%43%4%
Leading 12
Level 10
Trailing 1
2.00
points per game
At half-time
83%
10 of 12
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 1
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 252nd 21
At half-time
13%39%48%
Leading 3
Level 9
Trailing 11
0.78
points per game
At half-time
0%
0 of 3
Led at HT, won
27%
3 of 11
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 52nd 16
11
Points won from losing positions in 9 · 17 games
10
8
Points dropped from winning positions in 19 · 9 games
13
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Standings
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
1
18
3
1
51
10
41
57
2
16
5
2
36
14
22
53
3
15
4
4
46
27
19
49
4
▲
12
3
7
40
22
18
39
5
▼
11
5
7
40
26
14
38
···
16
▲
2
13
8
23
37
-14
19
17
▲
4
6
13
21
32
-11
18
18
▼
4
6
13
21
42
-21
18
19
▼
4
6
13
15
36
-21
18
20
2
7
14
19
44
-25
13
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