Stats Prediction
Result probability
78%
16%
Lille 78%
Draw 16%
Marseille 6%
2.1 – 0.4
goals per side
Expected Goals
2-0
18% chance
Most Likely Score
47%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
LIL · at home
MAR · away
1.80
Goals scored per game
1.10
0.40
Goals conceded per game
1.70
1.26x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.03x
0.37x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.19x
Average: 1.43 home goals and 1.07 away goals per game in Ligue 1 2023-2024
Based on 20 + 20 Ligue 1 2023-2024 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Clermont Foot (H) 4-0 · 4 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Lyon (A) 1-0 · 4 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 3 meetings
33%
33%
33%
Lille wins 1
Draws 1
Marseille wins 1
Goals 3 (1.00 per game)
Goals 3 (1.00 per game)
67%
2
of 3
Over 1.5 Goals
67%
2
of 3
Over 2.5 Goals
0%
0
of 3
Over 3.5 Goals
67%
2
of 3
Both Teams Scored
33%
1
of 3
Lille Clean Sheets
33%
1
of 3
Marseille Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
W
D
W
L
D
W
D
W
L
D
D
W
W
D
D
1.75
9-8-3
PPG Overall
2.30
7-2-1
PPG at Home
1.20
2-6-2
PPG Away
L
D
D
D
W
L
D
D
D
W
W
W
W
D
L
1.45
7-8-5
PPG Overall
2.20
6-4-0
PPG at Home
0.70
1-4-5
PPG Away
Venue form: Lille at home +229% on points per game vs Marseille away (2.30 vs 0.70)
Rest & Schedule
63
days rest
Lille 4-0 Clermont Foot
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
63
days rest
Lyon 1-0 Marseille
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
20
10
10
Win %
45%
70%
20%
Goals per game
2.10
2.20
2.00
Scored
1.40
1.80
1.00
Conceded
0.70
0.40
1.00
Both teams scored
40%
30%
50%
Clean sheets
60%
70%
50%
Failed to score
15%
0%
30%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
20
10
10
Win %
35%
60%
10%
Goals per game
2.50
2.20
2.80
Scored
1.40
1.70
1.10
Conceded
1.10
0.50
1.70
Both teams scored
50%
40%
60%
Clean sheets
30%
60%
0%
Failed to score
30%
20%
40%
Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Lille
LIL
Marseille
MAR
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
85% 17/20
90% 18/20
88%
–
Over 1.5
75% 15/20
75% 15/20
75%
72%
Over 2.5
30% 6/20
45% 9/20
38%
48%
Over 3.5
15% 3/20
25% 5/20
20%
26%
Over 4.5
5% 1/20
10% 2/20
8%
–
Under 2.5
70% 14/20
55% 11/20
63%
52%
Both teams score
BTTS
40% 8/20
50% 10/20
45%
49%
BTTS & win
0% 0/20
15% 3/20
8%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
20% 4/20
30% 6/20
25%
–
Lille
LIL
Marseille
MAR
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
75% 15/20
80% 16/20
78%
–
Over 1.5
35% 7/20
50% 10/20
43%
–
Over 2.5
5% 1/20
15% 3/20
10%
–
BTTS
5% 1/20
30% 6/20
18%
–
% of each club's games · League = Ligue 1 2023-2024 (180 games, 2.51 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.80 at home
1.10 away
Lille scored 18 in 10 home games
Marseille scored 11 in 10 away games
Lille
LIL
Marseille
MAR
Scored over 0.5
85% 17/20
70% 14/20
Scored over 1.5
40% 8/20
50% 10/20
Scored over 2.5
10% 2/20
15% 3/20
Failed to score
15% 3/20
30% 6/20
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.40 at home
1.70 away
Lille conceded 4 in 10 home games
Marseille conceded 17 in 10 away games
Lille
LIL
Marseille
MAR
Conceded over 0.5
40% 8/20
70% 14/20
Conceded over 1.5
20% 4/20
25% 5/20
Conceded over 2.5
5% 1/20
10% 2/20
Clean sheets
60% 12/20
30% 6/20
Streaks
Match Totals
Lille
LIL
Marseille
MAR
League
Corners
Corners won
5.70
5.85
–
Corners conceded
4.15
4.50
–
Match total
9.85
10.35
9.45
Over 8.5
55% 11/20
65% 13/20
–
Over 9.5
55% 11/20
55% 11/20
–
Over 10.5
40% 8/20
40% 8/20
–
Cards
Cards
1.90
1.80
–
Opponent cards
1.95
2.70
–
Match total
3.85
4.50
3.98
Over 3.5
55% 11/20
55% 11/20
–
Over 4.5
45% 9/20
45% 9/20
–
Shots
Shots
13.70
13.75
–
Opponent shots
8.75
11.20
–
Match total
22.45
24.95
25.14
Shots on target
On target
5.24
4.67
–
Opponent on target
3.71
4.22
–
Match total
8.94
8.89
–
Fouls
Fouls
10.70
11.05
–
Opponent fouls
15.40
13.65
–
Match total
26.10
24.70
–
Possession
All games
58%
53%
–
Home games
57%
52%
–
Away games
58%
54%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Ligue 1 2023-2024 (180 games) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Lille
Scored · 28
11%
14%
39%
7%
7%
22%
Conceded · 14
22%
14%
7%
0%
43%
14%
Marseille
Scored · 28
29%
28%
14%
11%
11%
7%
Conceded · 22
27%
5%
23%
18%
9%
18%
76%
Scored first
56%
21%
Goals after 75'
7%
Scored first: Lille 13 of 17, Marseille 10 of 18 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
55%30%15%
Leading 11
Level 6
Trailing 3
1.95
points per game
At half-time
73%
8 of 11
Led at HT, won
33%
1 of 3
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 182nd 10
At half-time
40%40%20%
Leading 8
Level 8
Trailing 4
1.60
points per game
At half-time
75%
6 of 8
Led at HT, won
50%
2 of 4
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 202nd 8
2
Points won from losing positions in 5 · 10 games
7
9
Points dropped from winning positions in 13 · 11 games
9
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Standings
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
···
2
11
6
3
20
11
9
39
3
10
6
4
29
17
12
36
4
9
8
3
28
14
14
35
5
10
5
5
37
28
9
35
6
9
5
6
24
19
5
32
7
9
3
8
27
27
0
30
8
7
8
5
28
22
6
29
9
7
7
6
30
25
5
28
10
6
7
7
21
26
-5
25
···
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