Stats Prediction
Result probability
14%
81%
Metz 5%
Draw 14%
Paris Saint Germain 81%
0.4 – 2.4
goals per side
Expected Goals
0-2
18% chance
Most Likely Score
52%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
29%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
MET · at home
Paris Saint Germain · away
0.80
Goals scored per game
2.10
1.20
Goals conceded per game
0.70
0.56x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.96x
1.12x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.49x
Average: 1.43 home goals and 1.07 away goals per game in Ligue 1 2023-2024
Based on 20 + 20 Ligue 1 2023-2024 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-1-4-1
vs Lorient (H) 1-2 · 4 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Strasbourg (A) 1-2 · 2 Feb 2024
Substitutes
42
Head to Head
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
W
W
D
0.80
4-4-12
PPG Overall
0.60
1-3-6
PPG at Home
1.00
3-1-6
PPG Away
W
D
W
W
D
W
D
W
W
D
W
W
W
W
W
2.35
14-5-1
PPG Overall
2.30
7-2-1
PPG at Home
2.40
7-3-0
PPG Away
Venue form: Paris Saint Germain away +300% on points per game vs Metz at home (2.40 vs 0.60)
Rest & Schedule
104
days rest
Metz 1-2 Lorient
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
106
days rest
Strasbourg 1-2 Paris Saint Germain
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
20
10
10
Win %
20%
10%
30%
Goals per game
2.40
2.00
2.80
Scored
0.85
0.80
0.90
Conceded
1.55
1.20
1.90
Both teams scored
45%
40%
50%
Clean sheets
15%
10%
20%
Failed to score
45%
60%
30%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
20
10
10
Win %
70%
70%
70%
Goals per game
3.25
3.70
2.80
Scored
2.40
2.70
2.10
Conceded
0.85
1.00
0.70
Both teams scored
60%
60%
60%
Clean sheets
40%
40%
40%
Failed to score
10%
10%
10%
Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Metz
MET
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
95% 19/20
90% 18/20
93%
–
Over 1.5
55% 11/20
90% 18/20
73%
72%
Over 2.5
45% 9/20
70% 14/20
58%
48%
Over 3.5
30% 6/20
45% 9/20
38%
26%
Over 4.5
10% 2/20
20% 4/20
15%
–
Under 2.5
55% 11/20
30% 6/20
43%
52%
Both teams score
BTTS
45% 9/20
60% 12/20
53%
49%
BTTS & win
10% 2/20
40% 8/20
25%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
40% 8/20
50% 10/20
45%
–
Metz
MET
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
65% 13/20
75% 15/20
70%
–
Over 1.5
40% 8/20
40% 8/20
40%
–
Over 2.5
10% 2/20
15% 3/20
13%
–
BTTS
30% 6/20
15% 3/20
23%
–
% of each club's games · League = Ligue 1 2023-2024 (180 games, 2.51 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
0.80 at home
2.10 away
Metz scored 8 in 10 home games
Paris Saint Germain scored 21 in 10 away games
Metz
MET
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Scored over 0.5
55% 11/20
90% 18/20
Scored over 1.5
20% 4/20
80% 16/20
Scored over 2.5
10% 2/20
50% 10/20
Failed to score
45% 9/20
10% 2/20
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.20 at home
0.70 away
Metz conceded 12 in 10 home games
Paris Saint Germain conceded 7 in 10 away games
Metz
MET
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
Conceded over 0.5
85% 17/20
60% 12/20
Conceded over 1.5
45% 9/20
20% 4/20
Conceded over 2.5
15% 3/20
5% 1/20
Clean sheets
15% 3/20
40% 8/20
Streaks
7
Lost in a row
10
Conceded in a row
2
Longest win run this season
15
Unbeaten last loss 16 games ago
13
Scored in a row
2
Conceded in a row
2
Both teams scored in a row
8
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Metz
MET
Paris Saint Germain
PAR
League
Corners
Corners won
3.95
5.21
–
Corners conceded
5.05
5.16
–
Match total
9.00
10.37
9.45
Over 8.5
55% 11/20
68% 13/19
–
Over 9.5
50% 10/20
68% 13/19
–
Over 10.5
35% 7/20
53% 10/19
–
Cards
Cards
1.60
1.40
–
Opponent cards
1.30
1.85
–
Match total
2.90
3.25
3.98
Over 3.5
40% 8/20
45% 9/20
–
Over 4.5
15% 3/20
25% 5/20
–
Shots
Shots
9.30
14.90
–
Opponent shots
14.35
12.65
–
Match total
23.65
27.55
25.14
Shots on target
On target
3.25
6.28
–
Opponent on target
5.45
4.67
–
Match total
8.70
10.94
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.25
10.20
–
Opponent fouls
11.75
11.80
–
Match total
24.00
22.00
–
Possession
All games
35%
65%
–
Home games
40%
69%
–
Away games
30%
62%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Ligue 1 2023-2024 (180 games) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Metz
Scored · 17
23%
18%
6%
0%
35%
18%
Conceded · 31
19%
13%
16%
19%
7%
26%
Paris Saint Germain
Scored · 48
10%
15%
25%
17%
10%
23%
Conceded · 17
0%
12%
6%
29%
29%
24%
37%
Scored first
94%
18%
Goals after 75'
23%
Scored first: Metz 7 of 19, Paris Saint Germain 17 of 18 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
10%55%35%
Leading 2
Level 11
Trailing 7
0.85
points per game
At half-time
100%
2 of 2
Led at HT, won
29%
2 of 7
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 82nd 9
At half-time
70%30%
Leading 14
Level 6
Trailing 0
2.40
points per game
At half-time
93%
13 of 14
Led at HT, won
–
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 242nd 24
5
Points won from losing positions in 15 · 1 games
0
9
Points dropped from winning positions in 8 · 17 games
6
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Standings
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
1
14
5
1
48
17
31
47
2
11
6
3
20
11
9
39
3
10
6
4
29
17
12
36
···
15
5
4
11
20
31
-11
19
16
3
7
10
26
42
-16
16
17
4
4
12
17
31
-14
16
18
3
6
11
14
32
-18
15
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