Stats Prediction
Result probability
24%
22%
54%
Monza 24%
Draw 22%
AC Milan 54%
1.2 – 2.0
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-1
10% chance
Most Likely Score
63%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Monza · at home
AC Milan · away
1.09
Goals scored per game
2.17
1.00
Goals conceded per game
1.67
0.75x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.98x
0.91x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.14x
Average: 1.46 home goals and 1.09 away goals per game in Serie A 2023-2024
Based on 23 + 23 Serie A 2023-2024 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
3-4-2-1
vs Udinese (A) 0-0 · 3 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Frosinone (A) 2-3 · 3 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 3 meetings
100%
Monza wins 0
Draws 0
AC Milan wins 3
Goals 1 (0.33 per game)
Goals 8 (2.67 per game)
67%
2
of 3
Over 1.5 Goals
67%
2
of 3
Over 2.5 Goals
33%
1
of 3
Over 3.5 Goals
33%
1
of 3
Both Teams Scored
0%
0
of 3
Monza Clean Sheets
67%
2
of 3
AC Milan Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 3 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
D
W
L
L
W
D
W
L
L
W
D
L
L
W
L
1.26
7-8-8
PPG Overall
1.45
4-4-3
PPG at Home
1.08
3-4-5
PPG Away
W
D
W
W
W
W
D
W
W
W
W
D
W
L
W
2.13
15-4-4
PPG Overall
2.27
8-1-2
PPG at Home
2.00
7-3-2
PPG Away
Venue form: AC Milan away +38% on points per game vs Monza at home (2.00 vs 1.45)
Rest & Schedule
15
days rest
Udinese 0-0 Monza
0 games in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
15
days rest
Frosinone 2-3 AC Milan
0 games in 14 days · 3 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
23
11
12
Win %
30%
36%
25%
Goals per game
2.13
2.09
2.17
Scored
0.91
1.09
0.75
Conceded
1.22
1.00
1.42
Both teams scored
39%
45%
33%
Clean sheets
35%
45%
25%
Failed to score
39%
18%
58%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
23
11
12
Win %
65%
73%
58%
Goals per game
3.17
2.45
3.83
Scored
2.00
1.82
2.17
Conceded
1.17
0.64
1.67
Both teams scored
57%
36%
75%
Clean sheets
35%
45%
25%
Failed to score
9%
18%
0%
Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Monza
MON
AC Milan
AC
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
87% 20/23
100% 23/23
93%
–
Over 1.5
65% 15/23
74% 17/23
70%
74%
Over 2.5
35% 8/23
65% 15/23
50%
50%
Over 3.5
13% 3/23
52% 12/23
33%
24%
Over 4.5
9% 2/23
22% 5/23
15%
–
Under 2.5
65% 15/23
35% 8/23
50%
50%
Both teams score
BTTS
39% 9/23
57% 13/23
48%
51%
BTTS & win
9% 2/23
30% 7/23
20%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
17% 4/23
57% 13/23
37%
–
Monza
MON
AC Milan
AC
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
70% 16/23
78% 18/23
74%
–
Over 1.5
35% 8/23
57% 13/23
46%
–
Over 2.5
0% 0/23
9% 2/23
4%
–
BTTS
9% 2/23
30% 7/23
20%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games, 2.55 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.09 at home
2.17 away
Monza scored 12 in 11 home games
AC Milan scored 26 in 12 away games
Monza
MON
AC Milan
AC
Scored over 0.5
61% 14/23
91% 21/23
Scored over 1.5
17% 4/23
70% 16/23
Scored over 2.5
13% 3/23
35% 8/23
Failed to score
39% 9/23
9% 2/23
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.00 at home
1.67 away
Monza conceded 11 in 11 home games
AC Milan conceded 20 in 12 away games
Monza
MON
AC Milan
AC
Conceded over 0.5
65% 15/23
65% 15/23
Conceded over 1.5
30% 7/23
35% 8/23
Conceded over 2.5
17% 4/23
9% 2/23
Clean sheets
35% 8/23
35% 8/23
Streaks
Match Totals
Monza
MON
AC Milan
AC
League
Corners
Corners won
4.96
4.68
–
Corners conceded
4.87
4.23
–
Match total
9.83
8.91
9.77
Over 8.5
70% 16/23
55% 12/22
–
Over 9.5
57% 13/23
41% 9/22
–
Over 10.5
48% 11/23
32% 7/22
–
Cards
Cards
2.43
2.57
–
Opponent cards
2.00
2.52
–
Match total
4.43
5.09
4.69
Over 3.5
57% 13/23
74% 17/23
–
Over 4.5
30% 7/23
57% 13/23
–
Shots
Shots
12.22
13.48
–
Opponent shots
14.96
14.09
–
Match total
27.17
27.57
25.17
Shots on target
On target
3.52
5.04
–
Opponent on target
5.13
4.13
–
Match total
8.65
9.17
–
Fouls
Fouls
11.65
11.39
–
Opponent fouls
11.13
11.35
–
Match total
22.78
22.74
–
Possession
All games
55%
56%
–
Home games
56%
53%
–
Away games
54%
60%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Monza
Scored · 21
5%
19%
24%
9%
24%
19%
Conceded · 28
36%
0%
14%
11%
11%
28%
AC Milan
Scored · 46
13%
11%
30%
15%
7%
24%
Conceded · 27
4%
11%
19%
7%
37%
22%
40%
Scored first
74%
19%
Goals after 75'
24%
Scored first: Monza 8 of 20, AC Milan 17 of 23 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
26%39%35%
Leading 6
Level 9
Trailing 8
1.17
points per game
At half-time
83%
5 of 6
Led at HT, won
13%
1 of 8
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 102nd 11
At half-time
52%43%4%
Leading 12
Level 10
Trailing 1
2.00
points per game
At half-time
83%
10 of 12
Led at HT, won
0%
0 of 1
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 252nd 21
4
Points won from losing positions in 12 · 9 games
11
2
Points dropped from winning positions in 8 · 19 games
8
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Standings
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
1
18
3
1
51
10
41
57
2
16
5
2
36
14
22
53
3
15
4
4
46
27
19
49
4
▲
12
3
7
40
22
18
39
5
▼
11
5
7
40
26
14
38
···
9
▼
10
4
8
31
25
6
34
10
▲
8
8
6
20
19
1
32
11
▼
7
8
8
21
28
-7
29
12
▲
7
8
8
24
26
-2
29
13
5
9
9
24
33
-9
24
···
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