Stats Prediction
Result probability
65%
21%
14%
Atalanta 65%
Draw 21%
Fiorentina 14%
2.0 – 0.8
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-0
13% chance
Most Likely Score
52%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Atalanta · at home
Fiorentina · away
2.25
Goals scored per game
1.27
0.67
Goals conceded per game
1.27
1.54x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.16x
0.61x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.87x
Average: 1.46 home goals and 1.09 away goals per game in Serie A 2023-2024
Based on 22 + 22 Serie A 2023-2024 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
3-4-1-2
vs Lazio (H) 3-1 · 4 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Lecce (A) 3-2 · 2 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings
40%
20%
40%
Atalanta wins 4
Draws 2
Fiorentina wins 4
Goals 16 (1.60 per game)
Goals 14 (1.40 per game)
80%
8
of 10
Over 1.5 Goals
70%
7
of 10
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
3
of 10
Over 3.5 Goals
70%
7
of 10
Both Teams Scored
20%
2
of 10
Atalanta Clean Sheets
10%
1
of 10
Fiorentina Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 10 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
W
W
W
D
W
W
W
W
D
W
L
W
W
L
L
1.77
12-3-7
PPG Overall
2.33
9-1-2
PPG at Home
1.10
3-2-5
PPG Away
L
L
D
L
W
L
L
D
L
W
W
W
D
W
L
1.55
10-4-8
PPG Overall
1.82
6-2-3
PPG at Home
1.27
4-2-5
PPG Away
Venue form: Atalanta at home +83% on points per game vs Fiorentina away (2.33 vs 1.27)
Rest & Schedule
42
days rest
Atalanta 3-1 Lazio
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
44
days rest
Lecce 3-2 Fiorentina
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
22
12
10
Win %
55%
75%
30%
Goals per game
2.82
2.92
2.70
Scored
1.82
2.25
1.30
Conceded
1.00
0.67
1.40
Both teams scored
45%
42%
50%
Clean sheets
45%
58%
30%
Failed to score
14%
8%
20%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
22
11
11
Win %
45%
55%
36%
Goals per game
2.55
2.55
2.55
Scored
1.41
1.55
1.27
Conceded
1.14
1.00
1.27
Both teams scored
41%
36%
45%
Clean sheets
27%
36%
18%
Failed to score
32%
27%
36%
Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Atalanta
ATA
Fiorentina
FIO
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
95% 21/22
100% 22/22
98%
–
Over 1.5
82% 18/22
64% 14/22
73%
74%
Over 2.5
55% 12/22
45% 10/22
50%
50%
Over 3.5
27% 6/22
32% 7/22
30%
24%
Over 4.5
23% 5/22
14% 3/22
18%
–
Under 2.5
45% 10/22
55% 12/22
50%
50%
Both teams score
BTTS
45% 10/22
41% 9/22
43%
51%
BTTS & win
14% 3/22
18% 4/22
16%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
36% 8/22
32% 7/22
34%
–
Atalanta
ATA
Fiorentina
FIO
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
77% 17/22
86% 19/22
82%
–
Over 1.5
45% 10/22
32% 7/22
39%
–
Over 2.5
14% 3/22
9% 2/22
11%
–
BTTS
18% 4/22
14% 3/22
16%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games, 2.55 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
2.25 at home
1.27 away
Atalanta scored 27 in 12 home games
Fiorentina scored 14 in 11 away games
Atalanta
ATA
Fiorentina
FIO
Scored over 0.5
86% 19/22
68% 15/22
Scored over 1.5
55% 12/22
45% 10/22
Scored over 2.5
27% 6/22
23% 5/22
Failed to score
14% 3/22
32% 7/22
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.67 at home
1.27 away
Atalanta conceded 8 in 12 home games
Fiorentina conceded 14 in 11 away games
Atalanta
ATA
Fiorentina
FIO
Conceded over 0.5
55% 12/22
73% 16/22
Conceded over 1.5
32% 7/22
27% 6/22
Conceded over 2.5
14% 3/22
9% 2/22
Clean sheets
45% 10/22
27% 6/22
Streaks
5
Unbeaten last loss 6 games ago
5
Scored in a row
3
Longest win run this season
4
Without a win last win 5 games ago
4
Conceded in a row
3
Longest win run this season
Match Totals
Atalanta
ATA
Fiorentina
FIO
League
Corners
Corners won
5.82
5.25
–
Corners conceded
4.05
3.45
–
Match total
9.86
8.70
9.77
Over 8.5
64% 14/22
40% 8/20
–
Over 9.5
55% 12/22
35% 7/20
–
Over 10.5
32% 7/22
30% 6/20
–
Cards
Cards
2.00
2.18
–
Opponent cards
1.91
2.18
–
Match total
3.91
4.36
4.69
Over 3.5
55% 12/22
68% 15/22
–
Over 4.5
36% 8/22
45% 10/22
–
Shots
Shots
14.41
13.05
–
Opponent shots
11.09
10.32
–
Match total
25.50
23.36
25.17
Shots on target
On target
5.33
4.41
–
Opponent on target
3.67
4.14
–
Match total
9.00
8.55
–
Fouls
Fouls
12.59
12.73
–
Opponent fouls
10.41
12.59
–
Match total
23.00
25.32
–
Offsides
Offsides
1.94
2.06
–
Opponent offsides
1.88
2.71
–
Match total
3.82
4.76
–
Possession
All games
52%
58%
–
Home games
52%
60%
–
Away games
51%
56%
–
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Atalanta
Scored · 40
15%
8%
20%
20%
10%
27%
Conceded · 22
18%
9%
32%
9%
0%
32%
Fiorentina
Scored · 31
23%
16%
13%
16%
10%
22%
Conceded · 25
20%
16%
12%
20%
12%
20%
62%
Scored first
50%
28%
Goals after 75'
23%
Scored first: Atalanta 13 of 21, Fiorentina 11 of 22 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
32%32%36%
Leading 7
Level 7
Trailing 8
1.27
points per game
At half-time
100%
7 of 7
Led at HT, won
25%
2 of 8
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 172nd 23
At half-time
36%23%41%
Leading 8
Level 5
Trailing 9
1.32
points per game
At half-time
75%
6 of 8
Led at HT, won
22%
2 of 9
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 162nd 15
4
Points won from losing positions in 9 · 11 games
5
5
Points dropped from winning positions in 14 · 13 games
7
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Standings
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
···
2
16
5
2
36
14
22
53
3
15
4
4
46
27
19
49
4
▲
12
3
7
40
22
18
39
5
▼
11
5
7
40
26
14
38
6
▼
9
9
4
29
22
7
36
7
10
5
7
32
26
6
35
8
▲
10
4
8
25
23
2
34
9
▼
10
4
8
31
25
6
34
10
▲
8
8
6
20
19
1
32
11
▼
7
8
8
21
28
-7
29
···
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