Stats Prediction
Result probability
59%
25%
16%
Inter 59%
Draw 25%
Napoli 16%
1.6 – 0.7
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-0
16% chance
Most Likely Score
42%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
41%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
Inter · at home
Napoli · away
2.36
Goals scored per game
1.45
0.55
Goals conceded per game
1.00
1.62x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.33x
0.50x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.68x
Average: 1.46 home goals and 1.09 away goals per game in Serie A 2023-2024
Based on 22 + 22 Serie A 2023-2024 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
3-5-2
vs Juventus (H) 1-0 · 4 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Verona (H) 2-1 · 4 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings
60%
20%
20%
Inter wins 6
Draws 2
Napoli wins 2
Goals 17 (1.70 per game)
Goals 12 (1.20 per game)
80%
8
of 10
Over 1.5 Goals
50%
5
of 10
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
4
of 10
Over 3.5 Goals
60%
6
of 10
Both Teams Scored
40%
4
of 10
Inter Clean Sheets
0%
0
of 10
Napoli Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 10 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
W
W
W
W
D
W
W
W
W
D
W
W
W
W
D
2.59
18-3-1
PPG Overall
2.55
9-1-1
PPG at Home
2.64
9-2-0
PPG Away
W
D
W
L
D
W
D
W
L
D
L
W
L
L
W
1.59
10-5-7
PPG Overall
1.55
5-2-4
PPG at Home
1.64
5-3-3
PPG Away
Venue form: Inter at home +55% on points per game vs Napoli away (2.55 vs 1.64)
Rest & Schedule
42
days rest
Inter 1-0 Juventus
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
42
days rest
Napoli 2-1 Verona
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
22
11
11
Win %
82%
82%
82%
Goals per game
2.77
2.91
2.64
Scored
2.32
2.36
2.27
Conceded
0.45
0.55
0.36
Both teams scored
36%
36%
36%
Clean sheets
64%
64%
64%
Failed to score
0%
0%
0%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
22
11
11
Win %
45%
45%
45%
Goals per game
2.64
2.82
2.45
Scored
1.45
1.45
1.45
Conceded
1.18
1.36
1.00
Both teams scored
50%
64%
36%
Clean sheets
27%
18%
36%
Failed to score
36%
27%
45%
Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Inter
INT
Napoli
NAP
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
100% 22/22
86% 19/22
93%
–
Over 1.5
82% 18/22
77% 17/22
80%
74%
Over 2.5
50% 11/22
64% 14/22
57%
50%
Over 3.5
27% 6/22
32% 7/22
30%
24%
Over 4.5
9% 2/22
5% 1/22
7%
–
Under 2.5
50% 11/22
36% 8/22
43%
50%
Both teams score
BTTS
36% 8/22
50% 11/22
43%
51%
BTTS & win
18% 4/22
32% 7/22
25%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
27% 6/22
50% 11/22
39%
–
Inter
INT
Napoli
NAP
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
82% 18/22
64% 14/22
73%
–
Over 1.5
32% 7/22
32% 7/22
32%
–
Over 2.5
9% 2/22
5% 1/22
7%
–
BTTS
14% 3/22
18% 4/22
16%
–
% of each club's games · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games, 2.55 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
2.36 at home
1.45 away
Inter scored 26 in 11 home games
Napoli scored 16 in 11 away games
Inter
INT
Napoli
NAP
Scored over 0.5
100% 22/22
64% 14/22
Scored over 1.5
68% 15/22
55% 12/22
Scored over 2.5
32% 7/22
18% 4/22
Failed to score
0% 0/22
36% 8/22
Goals conceded per game at this venue
0.55 at home
1.00 away
Inter conceded 6 in 11 home games
Napoli conceded 11 in 11 away games
Inter
INT
Napoli
NAP
Conceded over 0.5
36% 8/22
73% 16/22
Conceded over 1.5
9% 2/22
32% 7/22
Conceded over 2.5
0% 0/22
14% 3/22
Clean sheets
64% 14/22
27% 6/22
Streaks
Match Totals
Inter
INT
Napoli
NAP
League
Corners
Corners won
5.89
6.62
–
Corners conceded
4.39
3.62
–
Match total
10.28
10.24
9.77
Over 8.5
72% 13/18
81% 17/21
–
Over 9.5
61% 11/18
67% 14/21
–
Over 10.5
44% 8/18
38% 8/21
–
Cards
Cards
1.41
2.55
–
Opponent cards
2.09
2.64
–
Match total
3.50
5.18
4.69
Over 3.5
55% 12/22
73% 16/22
–
Over 4.5
27% 6/22
64% 14/22
–
Shots
Shots
15.73
16.68
–
Opponent shots
10.23
10.23
–
Match total
25.95
26.91
25.17
Shots on target
On target
5.23
5.52
–
Opponent on target
2.77
3.38
–
Match total
8.00
8.90
–
Fouls
Fouls
11.27
10.23
–
Opponent fouls
10.77
12.68
–
Match total
22.05
22.91
–
Possession
All games
55%
60%
–
Home games
57%
62%
–
Away games
54%
58%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Serie A 2023-2024 (226 games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Inter
Scored · 51
16%
6%
25%
14%
12%
27%
Conceded · 10
0%
20%
10%
30%
40%
0%
Napoli
Scored · 32
3%
16%
22%
9%
16%
34%
Conceded · 26
8%
12%
15%
23%
19%
23%
95%
Scored first
37%
27%
Goals after 75'
34%
Scored first: Inter 21 of 22, Napoli 7 of 19 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
73%27%
Leading 16
Level 6
Trailing 0
2.45
points per game
At half-time
88%
14 of 16
Led at HT, won
–
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 242nd 27
At half-time
32%50%18%
Leading 7
Level 11
Trailing 4
1.45
points per game
At half-time
100%
7 of 7
Led at HT, won
50%
2 of 4
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 132nd 19
1
Points won from losing positions in 2 · 12 games
11
7
Points dropped from winning positions in 21 · 10 games
0
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Serie A 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Standings
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
1
18
3
1
51
10
41
57
2
16
5
2
36
14
22
53
3
15
4
4
46
27
19
49
···
5
▼
11
5
7
40
26
14
38
6
▼
9
9
4
29
22
7
36
7
10
5
7
32
26
6
35
8
▲
10
4
8
25
23
2
34
9
▼
10
4
8
31
25
6
34
···
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