Stats Prediction
Result probability
38%
27%
35%
Toulouse 38%
Draw 27%
Marseille 35%
1.3 – 1.3
goals per side
Expected Goals
1-1
13% chance
Most Likely Score
47%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
TOU · at home
MAR · away
1.11
Goals scored per game
1.10
1.22
Goals conceded per game
1.70
0.78x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
1.03x
1.14x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
1.19x
Average: 1.43 home goals and 1.07 away goals per game in Ligue 1 2023-2024
Based on 20 + 20 Ligue 1 2023-2024 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Reims (A) 2-3 · 4 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-3-3
vs Lyon (A) 1-0 · 4 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 3 meetings
33%
67%
Toulouse wins 0
Draws 1
Marseille wins 2
Goals 3 (1.00 per game)
Goals 9 (3.00 per game)
67%
2
of 3
Over 1.5 Goals
67%
2
of 3
Over 2.5 Goals
67%
2
of 3
Over 3.5 Goals
67%
2
of 3
Both Teams Scored
33%
1
of 3
Toulouse Clean Sheets
33%
1
of 3
Marseille Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 3 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
W
L
W
L
D
W
L
W
L
D
L
D
L
D
L
1.00
4-8-8
PPG Overall
0.89
1-5-3
PPG at Home
1.09
3-3-5
PPG Away
L
D
D
D
W
L
D
D
D
W
W
W
W
D
L
1.45
7-8-5
PPG Overall
2.20
6-4-0
PPG at Home
0.70
1-4-5
PPG Away
Venue form: Toulouse at home +27% on points per game vs Marseille away (0.89 vs 0.70)
Rest & Schedule
77
days rest
Reims 2-3 Toulouse
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
77
days rest
Lyon 1-0 Marseille
0 games in 14 days · 0 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
20
9
11
Win %
20%
11%
27%
Goals per game
2.30
2.33
2.27
Scored
0.95
1.11
0.82
Conceded
1.35
1.22
1.45
Both teams scored
55%
67%
45%
Clean sheets
20%
22%
18%
Failed to score
35%
22%
45%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
20
10
10
Win %
35%
60%
10%
Goals per game
2.50
2.20
2.80
Scored
1.40
1.70
1.10
Conceded
1.10
0.50
1.70
Both teams scored
50%
40%
60%
Clean sheets
30%
60%
0%
Failed to score
30%
20%
40%
Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Toulouse
TOU
Marseille
MAR
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
90% 18/20
90% 18/20
90%
–
Over 1.5
80% 16/20
75% 15/20
78%
72%
Over 2.5
45% 9/20
45% 9/20
45%
48%
Over 3.5
10% 2/20
25% 5/20
18%
26%
Over 4.5
5% 1/20
10% 2/20
8%
–
Under 2.5
55% 11/20
55% 11/20
55%
52%
Both teams score
BTTS
55% 11/20
50% 10/20
53%
49%
BTTS & win
10% 2/20
15% 3/20
13%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
30% 6/20
30% 6/20
30%
–
Toulouse
TOU
Marseille
MAR
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
60% 12/20
80% 16/20
70%
–
Over 1.5
30% 6/20
50% 10/20
40%
–
Over 2.5
15% 3/20
15% 3/20
15%
–
BTTS
15% 3/20
30% 6/20
23%
–
% of each club's games · League = Ligue 1 2023-2024 (180 games, 2.51 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.11 at home
1.10 away
Toulouse scored 10 in 9 home games
Marseille scored 11 in 10 away games
Toulouse
TOU
Marseille
MAR
Scored over 0.5
65% 13/20
70% 14/20
Scored over 1.5
20% 4/20
50% 10/20
Scored over 2.5
10% 2/20
15% 3/20
Failed to score
35% 7/20
30% 6/20
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.22 at home
1.70 away
Toulouse conceded 11 in 9 home games
Marseille conceded 17 in 10 away games
Toulouse
TOU
Marseille
MAR
Conceded over 0.5
80% 16/20
70% 14/20
Conceded over 1.5
45% 9/20
25% 5/20
Conceded over 2.5
10% 2/20
10% 2/20
Clean sheets
20% 4/20
30% 6/20
Streaks
Match Totals
Toulouse
TOU
Marseille
MAR
League
Corners
Corners won
3.84
5.85
–
Corners conceded
5.63
4.50
–
Match total
9.47
10.35
9.45
Over 8.5
53% 10/19
65% 13/20
–
Over 9.5
47% 9/19
55% 11/20
–
Over 10.5
32% 6/19
40% 8/20
–
Cards
Cards
2.55
1.80
–
Opponent cards
2.15
2.70
–
Match total
4.70
4.50
3.98
Over 3.5
80% 16/20
55% 11/20
–
Over 4.5
50% 10/20
45% 9/20
–
Shots
Shots
11.40
13.75
–
Opponent shots
14.35
11.20
–
Match total
25.75
24.95
25.14
Shots on target
On target
4.15
4.67
–
Opponent on target
4.45
4.22
–
Match total
8.60
8.89
–
Fouls
Fouls
14.95
11.05
–
Opponent fouls
13.25
13.65
–
Match total
28.20
24.70
–
Possession
All games
49%
53%
–
Home games
49%
52%
–
Away games
49%
54%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Ligue 1 2023-2024 (180 games) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Toulouse
Scored · 19
26%
5%
26%
11%
16%
16%
Conceded · 27
7%
15%
15%
19%
11%
33%
Marseille
Scored · 28
29%
28%
14%
11%
11%
7%
Conceded · 22
27%
5%
23%
18%
9%
18%
50%
Scored first
56%
16%
Goals after 75'
7%
Scored first: Toulouse 9 of 18, Marseille 10 of 18 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
25%45%30%
Leading 5
Level 9
Trailing 6
1.20
points per game
At half-time
60%
3 of 5
Led at HT, won
33%
2 of 6
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 112nd 8
At half-time
40%40%20%
Leading 8
Level 8
Trailing 4
1.60
points per game
At half-time
75%
6 of 8
Led at HT, won
50%
2 of 4
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 202nd 8
6
Points won from losing positions in 12 · 10 games
7
15
Points dropped from winning positions in 10 · 11 games
9
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Standings
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
···
6
9
5
6
24
19
5
32
7
9
3
8
27
27
0
30
8
7
8
5
28
22
6
29
9
7
7
6
30
25
5
28
10
6
7
7
21
26
-5
25
11
5
9
6
23
24
-1
24
12
4
8
8
20
25
-5
20
13
4
8
8
19
27
-8
20
14
5
4
11
20
33
-13
19
15
5
4
11
20
31
-11
19
···
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