Stats Prediction
Result probability
25%
31%
44%
Toulouse 25%
Draw 31%
Lille 44%
0.8 – 1.1
goals per side
Expected Goals
0-1
17% chance
Most Likely Score
30%
model
Over 2.5 Goals
37%
model
Both Teams Score
How the model sees it
TOU · at home
LIL · away
1.11
Goals scored per game
1.00
1.22
Goals conceded per game
1.00
0.78x
Attack vs average goals scored, 1.00x = average
0.93x
1.14x
Defence vs average goals conceded, lower is better
0.70x
Average: 1.43 home goals and 1.07 away goals per game in Ligue 1 2023-2024
Based on 20 + 20 Ligue 1 2023-2024 games (attack × defence × league average, Poisson)
18+ · Statistical estimate, not betting advice.
Matchweek Games
Lineups
Lineups not confirmed yetBoth teams shown with the XI from their last game
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Reims (A) 2-3 · 4 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Last game lineup
4-2-3-1
vs Clermont Foot (H) 4-0 · 4 Feb 2024
Substitutes
Head to Head
Last 3 meetings
33%
67%
Toulouse wins 0
Draws 1
Lille wins 2
Goals 2 (0.67 per game)
Goals 5 (1.67 per game)
100%
3
of 3
Over 1.5 Goals
33%
1
of 3
Over 2.5 Goals
0%
0
of 3
Over 3.5 Goals
67%
2
of 3
Both Teams Scored
0%
0
of 3
Toulouse Clean Sheets
33%
1
of 3
Lille Clean Sheets
Recent meetings
All competitions · finished games before this kick-off
Goals across the last 3 meetings · includes players no longer at either club
Common Opponents
Form & Points per Game
W
L
W
L
D
W
L
W
L
D
L
D
L
D
L
1.00
4-8-8
PPG Overall
0.89
1-5-3
PPG at Home
1.09
3-3-5
PPG Away
W
D
W
L
D
W
D
W
L
D
D
W
W
D
D
1.75
9-8-3
PPG Overall
2.30
7-2-1
PPG at Home
1.20
2-6-2
PPG Away
Venue form: Lille away +35% on points per game vs Toulouse at home (1.20 vs 0.89)
Rest & Schedule
21
days rest
Reims 2-3 Toulouse
0 games in 14 days · 2 in 30 days
21
days rest
Lille 4-0 Clermont Foot
0 games in 14 days · 2 in 30 days
Team Comparison
Overall
Home
Away
Played
20
9
11
Win %
20%
11%
27%
Goals per game
2.30
2.33
2.27
Scored
0.95
1.11
0.82
Conceded
1.35
1.22
1.45
Both teams scored
55%
67%
45%
Clean sheets
20%
22%
18%
Failed to score
35%
22%
45%
Overall
Home
Away
Played
20
10
10
Win %
45%
70%
20%
Goals per game
2.10
2.20
2.00
Scored
1.40
1.80
1.00
Conceded
0.70
0.40
1.00
Both teams scored
40%
30%
50%
Clean sheets
60%
70%
50%
Failed to score
15%
0%
30%
Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off · underlined column = the venue each club plays this game at
Match Goals
Toulouse
TOU
Lille
LIL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
90% 18/20
85% 17/20
88%
–
Over 1.5
80% 16/20
75% 15/20
78%
72%
Over 2.5
45% 9/20
30% 6/20
38%
48%
Over 3.5
10% 2/20
15% 3/20
13%
26%
Over 4.5
5% 1/20
5% 1/20
5%
–
Under 2.5
55% 11/20
70% 14/20
63%
52%
Both teams score
BTTS
55% 11/20
40% 8/20
48%
49%
BTTS & win
10% 2/20
0% 0/20
5%
–
BTTS & over 2.5
30% 6/20
20% 4/20
25%
–
Toulouse
TOU
Lille
LIL
Average
Avg
League
Over 0.5
60% 12/20
75% 15/20
68%
–
Over 1.5
30% 6/20
35% 7/20
33%
–
Over 2.5
15% 3/20
5% 1/20
10%
–
BTTS
15% 3/20
5% 1/20
10%
–
% of each club's games · League = Ligue 1 2023-2024 (180 games, 2.51 goals per game)
Goals Scored & Conceded
Goals per game at this venue
1.11 at home
1.00 away
Toulouse scored 10 in 9 home games
Lille scored 10 in 10 away games
Toulouse
TOU
Lille
LIL
Scored over 0.5
65% 13/20
85% 17/20
Scored over 1.5
20% 4/20
40% 8/20
Scored over 2.5
10% 2/20
10% 2/20
Failed to score
35% 7/20
15% 3/20
Goals conceded per game at this venue
1.22 at home
1.00 away
Toulouse conceded 11 in 9 home games
Lille conceded 10 in 10 away games
Toulouse
TOU
Lille
LIL
Conceded over 0.5
80% 16/20
40% 8/20
Conceded over 1.5
45% 9/20
20% 4/20
Conceded over 2.5
10% 2/20
5% 1/20
Clean sheets
20% 4/20
60% 12/20
Streaks
Match Totals
Toulouse
TOU
Lille
LIL
League
Corners
Corners won
3.84
5.70
–
Corners conceded
5.63
4.15
–
Match total
9.47
9.85
9.45
Over 8.5
53% 10/19
55% 11/20
–
Over 9.5
47% 9/19
55% 11/20
–
Over 10.5
32% 6/19
40% 8/20
–
Cards
Cards
2.55
1.90
–
Opponent cards
2.15
1.95
–
Match total
4.70
3.85
3.98
Over 3.5
80% 16/20
55% 11/20
–
Over 4.5
50% 10/20
45% 9/20
–
Shots
Shots
11.40
13.70
–
Opponent shots
14.35
8.75
–
Match total
25.75
22.45
25.14
Shots on target
On target
4.15
5.24
–
Opponent on target
4.45
3.71
–
Match total
8.60
8.94
–
Fouls
Fouls
14.95
10.70
–
Opponent fouls
13.25
15.40
–
Match total
28.20
26.10
–
Possession
All games
49%
58%
–
Home games
49%
57%
–
Away games
49%
58%
–
Not shown: Offsides - recorded in fewer than 70% of these games.
Per game, over the games each stat is recorded in · League = Ligue 1 2023-2024 (180 games) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Goal Timing
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90+
Toulouse
Scored · 19
26%
5%
26%
11%
16%
16%
Conceded · 27
7%
15%
15%
19%
11%
33%
Lille
Scored · 28
11%
14%
39%
7%
7%
22%
Conceded · 14
22%
14%
7%
0%
43%
14%
50%
Scored first
76%
16%
Goals after 75'
21%
Scored first: Toulouse 9 of 18, Lille 13 of 17 games with a goal · from timed goal events (stoppage time counts in its half's last period) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Halves & Game State
At half-time
25%45%30%
Leading 5
Level 9
Trailing 6
1.20
points per game
At half-time
60%
3 of 5
Led at HT, won
33%
2 of 6
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 112nd 8
At half-time
55%30%15%
Leading 11
Level 6
Trailing 3
1.95
points per game
At half-time
73%
8 of 11
Led at HT, won
33%
1 of 3
Trailed at HT, not beaten
Goals by half
1st 182nd 10
6
Points won from losing positions in 12 · 5 games
2
15
Points dropped from winning positions in 10 · 13 games
9
Game state replayed from timed goal events · bar length = share of the maximum possible (3 × games) · Ligue 1 2023-2024 · finished games before kick-off
Likely Scorers
Bar + % = share of the club's goals
Bar + % = share of the club's goals they set up
Average rating over each player's last 5 rated games
Booking Risk
Cards per 90
Cards per 90
Cards per 90 = players with 450+ minutes
Standings
#
Club
M
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
Pt
···
2
11
6
3
20
11
9
39
3
10
6
4
29
17
12
36
4
9
8
3
28
14
14
35
5
10
5
5
37
28
9
35
6
9
5
6
24
19
5
32
···
11
5
9
6
23
24
-1
24
12
4
8
8
20
25
-5
20
13
4
8
8
19
27
-8
20
14
5
4
11
20
33
-13
19
15
5
4
11
20
31
-11
19
···
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